Uncertainty assessment in future storm surge risk projections using dynamic-stochastic downscaling

• Project/Area Number: 25420522
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: YASUDA TOMOHIRO 京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (60378916)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): MORI Nobuhito 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (90371476) ; NAKAJO Sota 熊本大学, 大学院自然科学研究科, 助教 (20590871)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 高潮 / 確率台風モデル / バイアス補正 / アンサンブル / 不確実性 / GCM / RCM / パラメトリック台風モデル / ダウンスケール

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study projects future change in storm surge by two approaches: a physical approach by dynamic simulation using general circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) outputs, and a stochastic approach by stochastic typhoon model (STM).
Storm surge simulations using RCM outputs projects future change in storm surge caused by climate change. Modified STM employing a cluster analysis projects typhoon characteristics under future climate employing ensemble GCM dataset. Sensitivity analysis of typhoon characteristics clarifies worst class typhoon conditions causing severest storm surge in a target bay. Event attribution analysis employing STM enables to estimate return period of the worst storm surge occurrence.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICAL BIAS CORRECTION METHOD FOR CLIMATE MODEL TYPHOONS AND ENSAMBLE FUTURE STORM SURGE PROJECTION DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (2015)
  • Author(s): 安田誠宏, 片平成明, 森 信人, 間瀬 肇, 澁谷容子
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 71 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1507-I_1512
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.71.I_1507
  • NAID: 130005109379
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] AN PARAMETRIC STUDY ON POTENTIAL OF STORM SURGE IN TOKYO BAY (2015)
  • Author(s): 中條壮大, 藤木秀幸, 金 洙列, 森 信人, 澁谷容子, 安田誠宏
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 71 Issue: 2 Pages: I_199-I_204
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.71.I_199
  • NAID: 130005109320
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] STORM SURGE FORECASITNG USING NEURAL NETWORK (2015)
  • Author(s): 金 洙列, 松見吉晴, 出田裕二郎, 間瀬 肇, 森 信人, 安田誠宏
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 71 Issue: 2 Pages: I_223-I_228
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.71.I_223
  • NAID: 130005109316
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] OPTIMUM SCHEME OF ADAPTIVE MESH REFINEMENT FOR TSUNAMI AND STORM SURGE MODELING (2015)
  • Author(s): 千田 優, 森 信人, 安田誠宏, 間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 71 Issue: 2 Pages: I_373-I_378
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.71.I_373
  • NAID: 130005109257
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] The role of sea surface drag in a coupled surge and wave model for Typhoon Haiyan 2013 (2015)
  • Author(s): Kim, S.Y., N. Mori, H. Mase and T. Yasuda
  • Journal Title: Ocean Modelling Volume: 96 Pages: 65-84
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.06.004
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Storm surge simulations of Typhoon Haiyan 2013 using a parametric wind and pressure model (2015)
  • Author(s): Kim, S., Mori, N., Shibutani, Y., Yasuda, T., Mase, H. and Oh, J.H.
  • Journal Title: Proc. of the 25th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference Volume: 25 Pages: 21-26
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Global stochastic tropical cyclone model based on principal component analysis with cluster analysis (2014)
  • Author(s): Nakajo, S., N. Mori, T. Yasuda and H. Mase
  • Journal Title: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Volume: 53 Issue: 6 Pages: 1547-1577
  • DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-13-08.1
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity (2014)
  • Author(s): Oku, Y., J. Yoshino, T. Takemi, and H. Ishikawa
  • Journal Title: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Volume: 14 Issue: 14 Pages: 2699-2709
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014gl060689
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Hindcast of Storm Surges and Waves Caused by Typhoon Haiyan Using a Coupling Model of Surge and Wave (2014)
  • Author(s): 金 洙列・森 信人・澁谷容子・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 70 Issue: 2 Pages: I_226-I_230
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.70.I_226
  • NAID: 130004706865
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Forecast and Hindcast of Storm Surge Modeling by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 (2014)
  • Author(s): 森 信人, 澁谷容子, 竹見哲也, 金 洙列, 安田誠宏, 丹羽竜也, 辻尾大樹, 間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 70 Issue: 2 Pages: I_246-I_250
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.70.I_246
  • NAID: 130004706868
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Effect of Translation Speed and Scale of Tropical Cyclone on Storm Surge in Yatsushiro Bay (2014)
  • Author(s): 中條壮大・金 洙列・森 信人・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇・山田文彦
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 70 Issue: 2 Pages: I_256-I_260
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.70.I_256
  • NAID: 130004706870
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Projection of Storm Surge considering Future Change of Tropical Cyclones using Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model and Artificial Neural Network (2014)
  • Author(s): 國吉早紀・森 信人・中條壮大・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 70 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1256-I_1260
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.70.I_1256
  • NAID: 130004706798
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Coastal Flood Disaster during Super Typhoon Haiyan in Hernani, Eastern Samar, Philippine (2014)
  • Author(s): 信岡 尚道, 安田 誠宏, 田島 芳満, 森 信人, 下園 武範, 佐々木 淳, 辻尾 大樹, Andrew KENNEDY, 宮本 守
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 70 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1426-I_1430
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.70.I_1426
  • NAID: 130004706834
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] SENSITIVITY OF FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANGES TO STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION: CASE STUDY IN ISE BAY, JAPAN (2014)
  • Author(s): Yoko Shibutani, Soo Youl Kim, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Hajime Mase
  • Journal Title: Proceedings of 34th Conference on Coastal Engineering Volume: 34 Issue: 34 Pages: 1-10
  • DOI: 10.9753/icce.v34.management.27
  • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] EVALUATION OF STORM SURGES AROUND THE KOREAN PENINSULA IN PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATES (2014)
  • Author(s): Sooyoul Kim, Jihee Oh, Kyung-Duck Suh, Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase
  • Journal Title: Proceedings of 34th Conference on Coastal Engineering Volume: 34 Issue: 34 Pages: 1-9
  • DOI: 10.9753/icce.v34.currents.23
  • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection (2014)
  • Author(s): Yasuda, T., S. Nakajo, S. Kim, H. Mase, N. Mori and K. Horsburgh
  • Journal Title: Coastal Engineering Volume: 83 Pages: 65-71
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Projection for Future Change of Storm Surges around Japanese Coasts using Non-hydrostatic RCM Outputs (2013)
  • Author(s): 安田誠宏, 片平成明, 森 信人, 澁谷容子, 間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 69 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1261-I_1265
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.69.I_1261
  • NAID: 130004551002
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Event Attribution of Storm Surge by Using Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model and Observation Data -Basic Study of Worst-case Scenario of Tropical Cyclone for Yatsushiro Sea- (2013)
  • Author(s): 中條壮大, 金 洙列, 山田文彦, 間瀬 肇, 森 信人, 安田誠宏
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 69 Issue: 2 Pages: I_366-I_370
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.69.I_366
  • NAID: 130004551099
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL STOCHASTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL BASED ON TEMPORAL CORRELATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PARAMETERS (2013)
  • Author(s): 中條壮大, 森 信人, 安田誠宏, 間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 69 Issue: 1 Pages: 64-76
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.69.64
  • NAID: 130004550941
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Projection of future wave climate change and application to coastal structure design (2013)
  • Author(s): Mori, N., Shimura, T., Nakajo, S., Tsujio, D., Yasuda, T., Mase, H. and Suh, K.D.
  • Journal Title: Coasts, Marine Structures and Breakwaters 2013 Volume: 1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Storm surge simulations based on climate change projection data along the Korean coast (2013)
  • Author(s): Kim, S. Y., Yasuda, T., Mase, H. and Matsumi, Y.
  • Journal Title: 韓国海洋科学技術協議会 共同学術大会 Volume: 1 Pages: 1619-1622
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Consideration of applicability of stochastic tropical cyclone model for probability assessment of storm surge (2013)
  • Author(s): Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Kim, S.Y., Yasuda, T. and Mase, H.
  • Journal Title: Proc. 7th Conf. Asian and Pacific Coasts Volume: 1 Pages: 613-619
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Projection of storm surge in the future climate considering bias of typhoons by GCM (2015)
  • Author(s): Yasuda, T., Katahira, N., Mori, N. and Mase, H.
  • Organizer: COASTAL STRUCTURES & SOLUTIONS TO COASTAL DISASTERS JOINT CONFERENCE
  • Place of Presentation: Boston, USA
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-09
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Storm surge forecast using a neural network - Case Study of Sakai Minato and Hamada, Japan - (2015)
  • Author(s): Kim, S., Matsumi, Y., Izuta, Y., Mase H., Mori, N. and Yasuda, T.
  • Organizer: Storm surge forecast using a neural network –Case Study of Sakai Minato and Hamada, Japan–
  • Place of Presentation: Boston, USA
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-09
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Optimum Scheme of Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Tsunami and Storm Surge Modeling (2015)
  • Author(s): Chida, Y., N. Mori, T. Yasuda, and H. Mase
  • Organizer: COASTAL STRUCTURES & SOLUTIONS TO COASTAL DISASTERS JOINT CONFERENCE
  • Place of Presentation: Boston, USA
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-09
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Impact of Future Tropical Cyclones on Storm Surges around the Korean Peninsula (2015)
  • Author(s): Oh, J., Kim, S., Suh, K.D., Yasuda, T. and Mase, H.
  • Organizer: 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change
  • Place of Presentation: Crete, Greece
  • Year and Date: 2015-06-09
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Remarks] 京都大学 防災研究所 沿岸災害研究分野
  • URL: http://www.coast.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/japanese/