Planning support system for reservoir operation considering operational ensemble forecasts of precipitatioin
| Project/Area Number |
25420523
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
HORI Tomoharu 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20190225)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Keywords | アンサンブル予報 / ダム操作 / 渇水 / 不確実性 / 予測の模擬発生 / モンテカルロシミュレーション / 利水 / 操作支援 / 予測の不確実性 / 最適化 / アンサンブル予測情報 / 予測情報の模擬発生 / ダム利水操作 / 予測情報の利用性分析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A supporting method for planning of real-time reservoir operation for water supply considering ensemble hydrological predictions was developed. Applicability of ensemble hydrological predictions in long-term reservoir operation for water supply was thoroughly investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation, employing ensemble inflow predictions generated with an arbitrary error structure by a simulated ensemble prediction generator. A method to support real-time reservoir operation for water supply considering operational ensemble hydrological predictions was developed with consideration of operation guidelines derived from the results of the investigation on applicability of ensemble hydrological predictions.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(9 results)
