Planning support system for reservoir operation considering operational ensemble forecasts of precipitatioin

• Project/Area Number: 25420523
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Nohara Daisuke 京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (00452326)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): HORI Tomoharu 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20190225)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
• Keywords: アンサンブル予報 / ダム操作 / 渇水 / 不確実性 / 予測の模擬発生 / モンテカルロシミュレーション / 利水 / 操作支援 / 予測の不確実性 / 最適化 / アンサンブル予測情報 / 予測情報の模擬発生 / ダム利水操作 / 予測情報の利用性分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A supporting method for planning of real-time reservoir operation for water supply considering ensemble hydrological predictions was developed. Applicability of ensemble hydrological predictions in long-term reservoir operation for water supply was thoroughly investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation, employing ensemble inflow predictions generated with an arbitrary error structure by a simulated ensemble prediction generator. A method to support real-time reservoir operation for water supply considering operational ensemble hydrological predictions was developed with consideration of operation guidelines derived from the results of the investigation on applicability of ensemble hydrological predictions.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Nice-Sophia Antipolis(フランス)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Seoul National University(韓国)
• [Journal Article] アンサンブル水文予測情報を考慮したダム利水操作の効果分析手法の検討 (2016)
  • Author(s): 得津萌佳・野原大督・堀智晴
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学) Volume: 72(4)
  • NAID: 130005491888
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] アンサンブル水文予測情報を考慮したダム利水操作の効果分析手法の検討 (2015)
  • Author(s): 得津萌佳・野原大督・堀智晴
  • Organizer: 土木学会第70回年次学術講演会
  • Place of Presentation: 岡山
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-17
• [Presentation] A Monte Carlo-based method to analyze effectiveness of reservoir operation for water supply considering ensemble inflow prediction (2015)
  • Author(s): Tokutsu, M., Nohara, D. and Hori, T.
  • Organizer: 12th Annual Meeting of AOGS Together with 7th APHW
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2015-08-03
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] アンサンブル水文予測情報を考慮したダム利水操作の効果分析手法の検討 (2015)
  • Author(s): 野原大督・得津萌佳・堀智晴
  • Organizer: 平成26年度京都大学防災研究所研究発表講演会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学宇治おうばくプラザ
  • Year and Date: 2015-02-24
• [Presentation] 現業アンサンブル降水予測情報を活用したダム利水操作とその効果の比較 (2014)
  • Author(s): 野原大督，堀智晴
  • Organizer: 水文・水資源学会2014年度研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 宮崎グリーンスフィア壱番館
  • Year and Date: 2014-09-26
• [Presentation] Real-time reservoir operation for drought management considering ensemble streamflow prediction derived from operational ensemble forecast of precipitation in Japan (2014)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D. and Hori, T
  • Organizer: The 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics
  • Place of Presentation: City Collage of New York
  • Year and Date: 2014-08-19
• [Presentation] Real-time reservoir operation for drought management considering operational ensemble predictions of precipitation in Japan (2013)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D. and Hori, T.
  • Organizer: The Smart Water Grid International Conference 2013
  • Place of Presentation: ConvensiA Incheon