• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Developing harvest prediction model in a national scale by adding up prefectural final cutting and utilization thinning volumes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25450207
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Forest science
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

HIROSHIMA Takuya  東京大学, 農学生命科学研究科, 講師 (40302591)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) NAKAJIMA Tohru  東京大学, 大学院農学生命科学研究科, 助教 (10598775)
KANOMATA Hidesato  独立行政法人森林総合研究所, 林業経営・政策研究領域, 研究員 (00353649)
Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Keywords主伐 / 間伐 / 搬出 / 都道府県 / 再生プラン / 国産材 / 人工林 / 都道府県別 / 2020年 / 森林・林業基本計画 / 森林・林業再生プラン / 新基本計画 / LYCS / 搬出率 / 伐採照査 / 民有林
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed harvest prediction model in a national scale by adding up prefectural final cutting and utilization thinning volumes and discussed the possibility of achieving domestic timber supply goal of 3.9 million m3 in the year 2020. To achieve the goal, it is required to fulfill 1.4-1.9 times of final cutting volume and 1.9-2.7 times of utilization thinning volume compared with those volumes in 2012. As a result, to increase final cutting volume in 2020 1.6 times from that in 2012, it is considered effective to shorten the final cutting rotation age by -5% in every 5 years by harvesting around the peak of age distribution (55-65 years old) of current planted forests intensively. Furthermore, to increase utilization thinning volume in 2020 2.0 times from that in 2012, it is required to fulfill 1.02-1.88 times of thinning area compared with that in 2012 and 28-70% of extraction ratio of thinned trees in overall prefectures.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All 2016 2015 2014 2013

All Journal Article (6 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Invited: 3 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 全国自治体における「森林管理・環境保全直接支払制度」導入前後の間伐傾向の変化2016

    • Author(s)
      広嶋卓也
    • Journal Title

      森林計画学会誌

      Volume: 印刷中

    • NAID

      130007403330

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] A decision support tool to optimize forestry management planning selection throughout Japan.2016

    • Author(s)
      Tohru Nakajima
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of The use of DSS in forest resources management and policy analysis

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Finding Suitable Stands for Clearcutting and Reforestation by Combining GIS Thematic Maps Expressed by Standard Scores: A Case Study in the University of Tokyo Chiba Forest2015

    • Author(s)
      Takuya Hiroshima
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Forest Planning

      Volume: 20 Pages: 35-43

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 林業の採算性から再造林を考える2015

    • Author(s)
      鹿又秀聡
    • Journal Title

      森林総合研究所四国支所公開講演要旨集

      Volume: 0 Pages: 3-4

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] J-VER取得費用の分析と販売価格に関する考察-東京大学千葉演習林における間伐推進プロジェクトを事例として-2014

    • Author(s)
      広嶋卓也
    • Journal Title

      日本森林学会誌

      Volume: 96

    • NAID

      130004941558

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 経営上の制約を満たす森林経営計画の検討―東京大学千葉演習林の事例―2013

    • Author(s)
      當山啓介・広嶋卓也・村川功雄・塚越剛史・大石諭・軽込勉
    • Journal Title

      関東森林研究

      Volume: 64-2 Pages: 1-4

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 都道府県別間伐モデルによる利用間伐量のシミュレーション-2020年国産材自給率50%の達成条件-2016

    • Author(s)
      広嶋卓也・鹿又秀聡・中島徹
    • Organizer
      第127回日本森林学会
    • Place of Presentation
      日本大学藤沢キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-28
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 森林吸収系J-VER取得費用の分析と 販売価格に関する考察2015

    • Author(s)
      広嶋卓也
    • Organizer
      カーボンオフセット推進ネットワーク(CO-NET)タスクフォースミーティング
    • Place of Presentation
      一般社団法人海外環境協力センター
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-17
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] GISによる森林伐採地の選定-東京大学千葉演習林の事例-2015

    • Author(s)
      広嶋卓也
    • Organizer
      G空間EXPO2015
    • Place of Presentation
      日本科学未来館
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-26
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 皆伐・利用間伐量の都道府県別積み上げによる国産材生産量予測2014

    • Author(s)
      廣嶋卓也・鹿又秀聡・中島徹
    • Organizer
      森林計画・計測における統計理論の応用に係わる若手研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所(東京都立川市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-06 – 2014-12-07
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 全国自治体の間伐傾向にみる直接支払制度の影響2014

    • Author(s)
      廣嶋卓也・鹿又秀聡・中島徹
    • Organizer
      第4回関東森林学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      KKR甲府ニュー芙蓉(山梨県甲府市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-17
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 東京大学5演習林によるJ-VERの取得2014

    • Author(s)
      広嶋卓也・五十嵐勇治・井口和信・井上淳・大村和也・澤田晴雄・渡邉良広・迫田一昭
    • Organizer
      日本森林学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大宮ソニックシティ(埼玉県さいたま市)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 「森林計画・計測における統計理論の応用に係わる若手研究集会」資料集2015

    • Author(s)
      廣嶋卓也・吉本敦 編
    • Total Pages
      62
    • Publisher
      森林計画学会出版局
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi