| Project/Area Number |
25460768
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Epidemiology and preventive medicine
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| Research Institution | Sapporo Medical University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
森 満 札幌医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (50175634)
斉藤 重幸 札幌医科大学, 保健医療学部, 教授 (60253994)
三浦 哲嗣 札幌医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (90199951)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | 特定健診・特定保健指導 / 生活習慣病罹患ハイリスク者 / 決定木分析 / CART / 地域一般住民コホート / 生活習慣病 / 高血圧 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We tried to establish a useful Classification and Regression Tree （CART）model for assessing a risk for future occurrence of life-style related disease, which includes hypertension, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a community-based cohort data. In the predicting model for hypertension, sensitivity and specificity were 68.2% and 71.1%, respectively. After exclusion of individuals with metabolic syndrome (MetS) or pre-MetS, sensitivity and specificity changed into 65.3% and 84.2%, respectively. In the predicting models for type 2 diabetes, sensitivity and specificity were 54.2% and 96.3%, respectively. In the predicting model for CVD, sensitivity and specificity were 7.4% and 99.3%, respectively. To find individuals at high risk for future occurrence of life-style related disease, using a CART model may be useful in the situation of health checkup and health guidance.
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