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A study on boom-bust cycles driven by diverse expectations

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25590050
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionResearch Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry

Principal Investigator

NAKATA HIROYUKI  独立行政法人経済産業研究所, 研究グループ, 上席研究員(非常勤) (20645866)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords期待 / 空売り規制 / コーディネーション / 社会厚生 / 国際研究者交流 / 多様なbelief / Boom-bustサイクル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We constructed a dynamical model that extends the standard general equilibrium model with incomplete markets that allows for diverse expectations by incorporating production so as to understand the two feedback mechanisms - from financial side to the real side, and from the real side to the financial side of the economy. In particular, we consider a model that has a socially optimal level of investment, implying that the existence of a coordination problem regarding investment. When the expectations are more volatile over time, prices become more volatile, but the average GDP level shows no monotonic relationship, when there is no short-sale constraint. In contrast, when short-sale constraints are imposed, looser constraints imply a higher average GDP level, but has no monotonic relationship with price fluctuations. However, the social welfare level will be lower when the short-sale constraints are looser.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (1 results)

All Other

All Presentation (1 results)

  • [Presentation] Endogenous Business Cycles and the Social Welfare under Heterogeneous Beliefs

    • Author(s)
      中田 啓之
    • Organizer
      Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      シンガポール
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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