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Construction of mathematical models for long-term forecast of atmospheric variation by climate time-series

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25610028
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Foundations of mathematics/Applied mathematics
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

SAKAJO Takashi  京都大学, 理学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (10303603)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) SAIKI Yoshitaka  一橋大学, 大学院商学研究科, 准教授 (20433740)
NAKANO Naoto  北海道大学, 大学院理学研究院, 研究院研究員 (30612642)
INATSU Masaru  北海道大学, 大学院理学研究院, 准教授 (80422450)
Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) MIYOSHI Takemasa  理化学研究所, 計算科学研究機構データ同化チーム, チームリーダ (90646209)
Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywords確率微分方程式 / データ同化 / カオス力学系 / 時系列解析 / 対流圏 / 成層圏 / Conley-Morse分解 / 時系列データ解析
Outline of Final Research Achievements

With close cooperation between mathematicians and meteorologist, the following research have been promoted. Firstly, we have developed a theoretical procedure to derive an empirical stochastic differential equation from climate time-series. It is applied to time-series of the tropospheric and the stratospheric winter-time low-frequency variability, which were published in an international journal. This procedure is applicable to the construction of wide range of atmospheric phenomena. Secondly, we constantly hold joint workshops between Kyoto University and RIKEN AICS on the data assimilation. They yield the development of a new non-Gaussian and non-linear data assimilation technique, which is now under close investigation as a seed research topic. Finally, we have carried out a fundamental research on the characterization of the data assimilation as chaos synchronization, which is to be a promising future perspective on the theoretical understanding of the data assimilation.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (18 results)

All 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (10 results) (of which Invited: 1 results) Remarks (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] Predictability of wintertime stratospheric circulation examined by non-stationary fluctuation dissipation relation2015

    • Author(s)
      Inatsu, M., N. Nakano, S. Kusuoka, and H. Mukougawa
    • Journal Title

      J. Atmos. Sci.

      Volume: 72

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 非双曲力学系の不安定周期軌道解析:エノン写像の周期軌道展開2014

    • Author(s)
      斉木吉隆
    • Journal Title

      九州大学応用力学研究所 研究集会報告「非線形波動現象の拡がり」

      Volume: 25AO-S2 Pages: 91-100

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Manifold structures of Unstable Periodic Orbits and the Appearance of a Periodic Window in Chaotic Systems2014

    • Author(s)
      M. U. Kobayashi and Y. Saiki
    • Journal Title

      Physical Review E

      Volume: 89 Pages: 1-6

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式モデルを用いたベクトル時系列データ解析におけるアンサンブル予測可能性評価2015

    • Author(s)
      中野直人・稲津將・楠岡誠一郎・齊木吉隆
    • Organizer
      日本数学会2015年会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-23
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式モデルを用いたベクトル時系列データ解析における予測可能性評価2014

    • Author(s)
      中野直人・稲津將・楠岡誠一郎・齊木吉隆
    • Organizer
      応用数学合同研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      龍谷大学(大津市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-20
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 非定常揺動散逸定理による冬季成層圏循環の予測可能性2014

    • Author(s)
      稲津將・中野直人・楠岡誠一郎・向川均
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会
    • Place of Presentation
      福岡国際会議場(福岡市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 非定常揺動散逸定理による冬季成層圏循環の予測可能性2014

    • Author(s)
      稲津將・中野直人・楠岡誠一郎・向川均
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会北海道支部2014年度第1回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-09
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気象庁1か月予報によるマッデン・ジュリアン振動の予測可能性2014

    • Author(s)
      市川 悠衣子・稲津 將
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会北海道支部2014年度第1回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-09
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気象庁1 か月予報におけるマッデンジュリアン振動の予測可能性2014

    • Author(s)
      市川悠衣子・稲津 將
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会北海道支部2014年度第1回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-09
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Conley-Morseグラフの方法による気象ダイナミクスの時系列データ解析2014

    • Author(s)
      森田 英俊・稲津 將・國府 寛司
    • Organizer
      2013年度物理学会
    • Place of Presentation
      平塚市,神奈川(東海大学)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamics and predictability of extratropical wintertime low-frequency variability examined by a stochastic differential equation in a low-dimensional system2013

    • Author(s)
      Inatsu, M., N. Nakano, and H. Mukougawa
    • Organizer
      RIMS International Conference on Theoretical Aspects of Variability and Predictability in Weather and Climate Systems
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto (Kyoto Univeristy)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式を用いた時系列解析における統計的係数決定公式と軌道の予測可能性2013

    • Author(s)
      中野 直人・斉木 吉隆・稲津 將・楠岡 誠一郎
    • Organizer
      日本数学会2013年度秋期総合分科会
    • Place of Presentation
      松山市,愛媛県(愛媛大学)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Application of a topological-computation method to meteorological data2013

    • Author(s)
      森田 英俊・稲津 將・國府 寛司
    • Organizer
      2013年度応用数学合同研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      瀬田市,滋賀県(龍谷大学)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 第3回 理研・京大合同データ同化研究会

    • URL

      http://data-assimilation.jp/jp/events/aics_ku_ws_2014/

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 第4回 理研・京大合同データ同化研究会

    • URL

      http://data-assimilation.jp/jp/events/aics_ku_ws_2015spring/

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 平成25年度日本気象学会北海道支部総会・研究発表会

    • URL

      http://www.metsoc-hokkaido.jp/

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 気象学におけるビッグデータ同化の数理

    • URL

      http://coop-math.ism.ac.jp/event/2013W09

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 気象学におけるビッグデータの数理

    • URL

      http://www.wpi-aimr.tohoku.ac.jp/~nakano/workshop/ismcoopwithmath2013/top_jp.html

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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