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Analysis on investment decisions of power producers toward the activation of electricity markets

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25750127
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionTokyo University of Science

Principal Investigator

TAKASHIMA Ryuta  東京理科大学, 理工学部, 講師 (50401138)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywords電力システム改革 / 新規電気事業者 / リプレース / 火力電源入札制度 / Missing money / 容量市場 / 投資タイミング / リアルオプション / 参入可能性 / Missing moneyの問題 / 電力市場 / 電源投資 / 発電容量選択
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In Japan recently the electricity system reform has been required, and various policies and regulations are needed toward the full liberalization of electricity markets. In this work, we focused on the bidding system of investments in thermal power generations and the capacity mechanism, and investigated investment decisions of power producers under these schemes. In an analysis on the bidding system of investments we showed that the replacement is accelerated due to the decrease in the bid price whereas excessive decreases induce the reduction in the replacement opportunity. Furthermore in an analysis on the capacity mechanism we examined effects of price uncertainties for electricity and capacity markets. It turned out that when the uncertainty of electricity prices is small, the value of the investment option becomes large compared to energy only markets.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (47 results)

All 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 5 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (39 results) (of which Invited: 3 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 一般化加法モデルを用いたJEPX時間帯価格予測と入札量-価格関数の推定2015

    • Author(s)
      山田雄二,牧本直樹,高嶋隆太
    • Journal Title

      ジャフィージャーナル

      Volume: 14 Pages: 8-39

    • NAID

      120007129150

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 火力電源入札制度によるリプレースの経済性評価2015

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人, 高嶋隆太
    • Journal Title

      日本エネルギー学会学会誌

      Volume: 94 Pages: 121-129

    • NAID

      130004741240

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 不確実性下における再生可能エネルギー割当基準制度での均衡投資2015

    • Author(s)
      鴨林裕太,高嶋隆太,田中誠,Yihsu Chen
    • Journal Title

      数理解析研究所講究録

      Volume: 1933 Pages: 193-205

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 電力市場における容量メカニズムと電源投資2015

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人,高嶋隆太
    • Journal Title

      数理解析研究所講究録

      Volume: 1933 Pages: 184-192

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Recent Activities in the Field of General Issues2014

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Yamano, Ryuta Takashima
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology

      Volume: 51 Pages: 133-135

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Investment, Capacity Choice and Outsourcing Options under Uncertainty2013

    • Author(s)
      Makoto Goto, Ryuta Takashima
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Real Options and Strategy

      Volume: 1 Pages: 17-27

    • NAID

      130005001741

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 海上航路ネットワークとエネルギー資源の国際輸送におけるチョークポイント分析2013

    • Author(s)
      鳥海重喜,高嶋隆太
    • Journal Title

      GIS-理論と応用

      Volume: 21 Pages: 47-55

    • NAID

      10031182456

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 多段階投資における最適投資回数の分析2015

    • Author(s)
      佐藤公俊,高嶋隆太,内藤優太
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2015年春季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学神楽坂キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-27
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 一般化加法モデルを用いたJEPX入札関数の推定2015

    • Author(s)
      山田雄二,牧本直樹,高嶋隆太,後藤順哉
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2015年春季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学神楽坂キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-27
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Capacity mechanisms and investment decisions in electricity market2015

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人,高嶋隆太,山田雄二,牧本直樹
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2015年春季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学神楽坂キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-26
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Do executive stock options affect corporate financing decisions?2015

    • Author(s)
      八木恭子,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      2014年度確率モデルシンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学片平キャンパス(宮城県)
    • Year and Date
      2015-01-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 再生可能エネルギー普及促進策と電力市場均衡価格2014

    • Author(s)
      千葉俊輔,鴨林裕太,高嶋隆太,田中誠
    • Organizer
      「都市のOR」ワークショップ2014
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学名古屋キャンパス(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-14
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 電力市場における容量メカニズムと電源投資2014

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人,内藤優太,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      「都市のOR」ワークショップ2014
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学名古屋キャンパス(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-14
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] レジリエンスを考慮したエコシステムのデザイン2014

    • Author(s)
      桐山恵理子,高嶋隆太,鳥海重喜
    • Organizer
      「都市のOR」ワークショップ2014
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学名古屋キャンパス(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-14
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] LNG海上輸送の経済性と価格リスクの影響2014

    • Author(s)
      井上晃太,高嶋隆太,鳥海重喜
    • Organizer
      「都市のOR」ワークショップ2014
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学名古屋キャンパス(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-13
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 不確実性下における再生可能エネルギー割当基準制度での均衡投資戦略2014

    • Author(s)
      鴨林裕太,高嶋隆太,田中誠,Yihsu Chen
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会2014年研究発表大会,東洋大学
    • Place of Presentation
      東洋大学白山キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-23
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火力電源入札制度によるリプレースの経済性評価2014

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会2014年研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東洋大学白山キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-22
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] レバレッジドバイアウトにおける負債比率に関するリアルオプションモデル2014

    • Author(s)
      岩下晃,高嶋隆太,後藤允,辻村元男
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会2014年研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東洋大学白山キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-22
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Equilibrium Investment Strategies in Renewable Portfolio Standards under Uncertainty2014

    • Author(s)
      Yuta Kamobayashi, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-12
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment Decisions and Debt Priority Structure: Straight Debt and Convertible Debt2014

    • Author(s)
      Kyoko Yagi, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-12
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Evaluating Risk of International Transportation for Energy Resources2014

    • Author(s)
      Shigeki Toriumi, Keisuke Inada, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-11
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Capacity Mechanisms and Generation Investments in Electricity Markets2014

    • Author(s)
      Yuto Takano, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-11
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Persist or Perish: Optimal Management of Alternative-Energy Technologies2014

    • Author(s)
      Ryuta Takashima, Afzal Siddiqui
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-09
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 再生可能エネルギー政策の評価-再生可能エネルギー割当基準制度での均衡投資-2014

    • Author(s)
      高嶋隆太,鴨林裕太,田中誠
    • Organizer
      南山大学理工学部講演会
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学瀬戸キャンパス(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 不確実性下における電源リプレースの経済性評価2014

    • Author(s)
      高嶋隆太,高野祐人,内藤優太
    • Organizer
      第26回RAMPシンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      法政大学市ヶ谷キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-16
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 電力供給方式の経済性比較2014

    • Author(s)
      柳井浩,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2014年秋季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道科学大学(北海道)
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] スーパーグリッドの創設案件の経済的な成立条件2014

    • Author(s)
      高森寛,柳井浩,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2014年秋季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道科学大学(北海道)
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] LNG海上輸送における輸送コストとCO2排出の評価2014

    • Author(s)
      高嶋隆太,鳥海重喜
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2014年秋季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道科学大学(北海道)
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 不確実性を考慮した太陽光発電の分散配置2014

    • Author(s)
      鵜飼孝盛,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2014年秋季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道科学大学(北海道)
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Maritime Transport for LNG, Power Generation, and Electric Transmission2014

    • Author(s)
      Ryuta Takashima, Shigeki Toriumi, Keisuke Inada
    • Organizer
      37th IAEE International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Wyndham New Yorker Hotel, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-17
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 排出削減費用に対する生産量の評価2014

    • Author(s)
      鴨林裕太,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会2014年春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学野田キャンパス(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-17
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火力電源入札制度によるリプレースの経済性評価2014

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会2014年春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学野田キャンパス(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-17
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 不確実性下における投資と撤退の意思決定-実験経済学アプローチ-2014

    • Author(s)
      高嶋隆太,高橋拓翔,茂木源人,杉友盛佑
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会2014年春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学野田キャンパス(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-17
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment Decisions and Debt Priority Structure: Straight Debt and Convertible Debt

    • Author(s)
      八木恭子,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      2013年度確率モデルシンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      東京理科大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 排出削減費用に対する生産量の影響

    • Author(s)
      鴨林裕太,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      「都市のOR」ワークショップ2013
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 火力発電入札によるリプレースの経済性評価

    • Author(s)
      高野祐人,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      「都市のOR」ワークショップ2013
    • Place of Presentation
      南山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Project Financing for Investments in Energy Technologies

    • Author(s)
      高嶋隆太,八木恭子
    • Organizer
      平成25年度数理解析研究所研究集会「ファイナンスの数理解析とその応用」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Investment Decisions and Debt Priority Structure: Straight Debt and Convertible Debt

    • Author(s)
      八木恭子,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      平成25年度数理解析研究所研究集会「ファイナンスの数理解析とその応用」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Mathematical Model of Maritime Transport for Energy Resource with Choke Point Risk

    • Author(s)
      Shigeki Toriumi, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Minneapolis Convention Center
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Project Financing for Investments in Energy Technologies

    • Author(s)
      Ryuta Takashima, Kyoko Yagi, Shohei Ohata
    • Organizer
      INFORMS Annual Meeting 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Minneapolis Convention Center
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 長距離送電による大規模送電網実現の経済分析

    • Author(s)
      鵜飼孝盛,高嶋隆太
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2013年秋季研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      徳島大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] An Economic Evaluation of Multilateral Approaches to Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    • Author(s)
      Ryuta Takashima, Yusuke Kuno, Shigeki Toriumi
    • Organizer
      13th IAEE European Conference 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton Dusseldorf Hotel
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Investment in Alternative Energy Technologies under Physical and Policy Uncertainties

    • Author(s)
      Afzal Siddiqui, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      17th Real Options Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Sequential Investment, Capacity Sizing and Dividing Flexibility

    • Author(s)
      Kimitoshi Sato, Yuta Naito, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      17th Real Options Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Effects of Executive Stock Option Grants on Investment and Financing Decisions

    • Author(s)
      Kyoko Yagi, Ryuta Takashima
    • Organizer
      26th European Conference on Operational Research
    • Place of Presentation
      Sapienza University of Rome
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Project Financing for Investments in Energy Technologies

    • Author(s)
      Ryuta Takashima, Kyoko Yagi, Shohei Ohata
    • Organizer
      51st Meeting of the EWGCFM
    • Place of Presentation
      ESCP Europe’s London Campus
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 初めて学ぶリスク科学2013

    • Author(s)
      安藤雅和,越山健彦,柴田清,徐春暉,高木彩,高嶋隆太,山崎晃
    • Total Pages
      206
    • Publisher
      日科技連
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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