| Project/Area Number |
25780148
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Research Field |
Economic statistics
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Otaru University of Commerce |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
LIU QINGFENG 小樽商科大学, 商学部, 教授 (60378958)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | Model Averaging / Model Selection / Optimality / Information Criterion / Confidence Set / GMM / OLS / GLS / Forecast / Tobin's Q |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In order to reduce the risk of estimation, we proposed several model averaging methods. The asymptotic properties of those methods were investigated and simulation studies were conducted. The simulation results show that our methods work well and performs better than alternative methods in finite samples. Those methods can be widely applied to various fields, including high dimensional data analysis, macroeconomic and financial market forecasting and forecasting for natural science.
We proposed two model-averaging method, the heteroscedasticity-robust method (HRCp) and the generalized least squares model averaging method (GLSMA) for linear regression models with heteroscedastic errors. Moreover, we constructed a confidence set around model averaging estimate, and conducted simulation studies to check its finite sample properties.
|
