| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We improved the global stochastic tropical cyclone model by cluster analysis on tropical cyclone data. Then sea surface temperature condition has been included to one of the principle component of probability distribution function of this stochastic model. This improvement allowed future prediction of effect of sea surface temperature on the development and dissipation process of tropical cyclone. We combined the GCM results, global stochastic tropical cyclone model and neural network model for prediction of future disaster event of storm surge at Osaka bay and so on. Event attribution analysis of storm surge in Yatsushiro bay, Osaka bay, Ise bay and Tokyo bay were performed. Then we assessed the potential of storm surge disaster of each bay and rough estimation of return period of major tropical cyclone condition.
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