| Project/Area Number |
26247079
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
望月 崇 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 気候モデル高度化研究プロジェクトチーム, 主任研究員 (00450776)
塩竈 秀夫 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)
今田 由紀子 (金丸由紀子 / 今田 由紀子(金丸由紀子)) 気象庁気象研究所, 気候研究部, 主任研究官 (50582855)
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| Research Collaborator |
KAMAE YOUICHI
TAKAHSHI CHIHARU
Jin Fei-Fei
HAYASHI MICHIYA
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥41,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥31,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,480,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥10,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥10,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥9,620,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,220,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥10,660,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,460,000)
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| Keywords | 気候変動 / 異常天候 / 全球気候モデル / テレコネクション / エルニーニョ・南方振動 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Motivated by understanding recent increases in extreme hot summer over Japan and associated long-term changes in the tropical atmosphere-ocean system, we performed a large ensemble simulation using global climate models. For the 2013 hot summer, taken as an example, it was clarified that the human induced warming in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has significantly increased the occurrence probability. The increasing frequency of hot summer is observed over the Northern Hemisphere, where land warming directly induced by increasing CO2 concentration was found the primary cause. Over the last two decades, equatorial trade winds have been intensified, leading to increases in SST and frequency of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific. We found that this enhancement of trade winds was caused not only by global warming but also by recent change in aerosol radiative forcing. During the four years, we published 31 peer-reviewed papers including the works described above.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
異常天候と地球温暖化の関係は、日本の社会にとって今後ますます重要な課題となる。本研究で確立された要因分析やメカニズム解明の手法は、2018年夏の猛暑にも適用されて成果を挙げており、気象・気候研究コミュニティの社会に対するアカウンタビリティとして重要な意義をもつ。学術的には、異常天候にとって重要な熱帯太平洋の海面水温長期変化の要因究明を進めたことで、今後の全球的気候変化の予測と理解に貢献できた。本研究の成果は、2021年公開に向けて本格化しているIPCC第6次評価報告書にも盛り込まれる見込みである。
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