| Budget Amount *help |
¥11,960,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,760,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we improved statistical models proposed by Tango et al. for detecting disease clusters and emerging disease outbreaks. Compared with other existing statistical models, Tango et al.’s models have shown a lot of good performance in actual epidemiological cluster detection but it has been said in the literature that (1) their models have low detection probability of the true cluster and (2) they have difficulty in correctly detecting the growth of space-time disease outbreaks. The first problem was improved by modifying a restricted likelihood ratio. To overcome the second problem we considered a improved space-time scan statistic for detecting localized emerging disease outbreaks which can detect outbreaks more timely and correctly. These properties are illustrated with data from the weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kitakyushu-shi Japan, 2006.
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