Statistical models for detecting clusters of rare events

• Project/Area Number: 26280008
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Teikyo University
• Principal Investigator: Tango Toshiro 帝京大学, 大学院公衆衛生学研究科, 教授 (70124477)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
• Budget Amount: ¥11,960,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,760,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
• Keywords: 空間疫学 / 疾病集積性 / 環境統計

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we improved statistical models proposed by Tango et al. for detecting disease clusters and emerging disease outbreaks. Compared with other existing statistical models, Tango et al.’s models have shown a lot of good performance in actual epidemiological cluster detection but it has been said in the literature that (1) their models have low detection probability of the true cluster and (2) they have difficulty in correctly detecting the growth of space-time disease outbreaks. The first problem was improved by modifying a restricted likelihood ratio. To overcome the second problem we considered a improved space-time scan statistic for detecting localized emerging disease outbreaks which can detect outbreaks more timely and correctly. These properties are illustrated with data from the weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kitakyushu-shi Japan, 2006.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] On the recent debate on the space-time scan statistic for prospective surveillance (2016)
  • Author(s): Tango T
  • Journal Title: Statistics in Medicine Volume: 35 Pages: 1927-1928
  • DOI: 10.1002/sim.6831
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Chronological, geographical, and seasonal trends of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Vietnam, 2003–2014: a spatial analysis (2016)
  • Author(s): Manabe T, Yamaoka K, Tango T, Binh NG, Co DX, Tuan ND, Izumi S, Takasaki J, Chau NQ, Kudo K
  • Journal Title: BMC Infectious Diseases Volume: 16 Pages: 64-64
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1391-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Breast cancer clusters in Kanagawa, Japan: A geographic analysis (2014)
  • Author(s): Katayama K, Yokoyama K, Yako-Suketomo H, Okamoto N, Tango T and Inaba Y
  • Journal Title: Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2014, 15: 455-460. Volume: 15(1) Pages: 455-460
  • DOI: 10.7314/apjcp.2014.15.1.455
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] A cluster randomized controlled trial to examine the effects of lifestyle education program for adolescents (2016)
  • Author(s): Yamaoka K, Watanabe M, Watanabe J, Adachi M, Nemoto A, Tango T
  • Organizer: International Biometric Conference 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Victoria, Canada
  • Year and Date: 2016-07-10
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 中学生のライフスタイル改善による愁訴減少の効果の評価：クラスター無作為化比較試験 (2016)
  • Author(s): 渡邊純子、渡辺満利子、山岡和枝、安達美佐、根本明日香、丹後俊郎
  • Organizer: 第26回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 米子市、米子コンベンションセンター
  • Year and Date: 2016-01-21
• [Presentation] On the recent debate on SatScan for prospective surveillance (2015)
  • Author(s): Tango T.
  • Organizer: GEOMED 2015
  • Place of Presentation: Florence, Italy
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-10
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Statistical methods for disease clustering (2014)
  • Author(s): Tango T
  • Organizer: XXXVIIth International Biometric Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Firenze, Italy
  • Year and Date: 2014-07-06 – 2014-07-11
  • Invited