Study on physics parameter uncertainty of climate change attribution

• Project/Area Number: 26281013
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental dynamic analysis
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Shiogama Hideo 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 横畠 徳太 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (20391170) ; 渡部 雅浩 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (70344497) ; 田中 克政 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (90747065)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥16,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,720,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using the MIROC5 climate model, we investigated the physics parameter uncertainties in the attribution of the past climate change and the future projection. At first we performed the perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of atmospheric model to select the parameter sets for the coupled atmosphere-ocean model (AOGCM) experiments. We also performed the PPE of AOGCM. The largest parametric uncertainty source of the past temperature changes was found in the temperature responses to aerosols. In the future projection, the greenhouse gas uncertainty increased, while the aerosol uncertainty decreased.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Oxford(英国)
• [Journal Article] Climate Change Increased the Likelihood of the 2016 Heat Extremes in Asia (2018)
  • Author(s): Imada Yukiko、Shiogama Hideo、Takahashi Chiharu、Watanabe Masahiro、Mori Masato、Kamae Youichi、Maeda Shuhei
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume: 99 Issue: 1 Pages: S97-S101
  • DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-17-0109.1
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5 (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogura, T., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, N. Ushigami, K. Hirota, Y. Someya, Y. Kamae, H. Tatebe, and M. Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Geoscientific Model Development Volume: 10 Issue: 12 Pages: 4647-4664
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-4647-2017
  • NAID: 120007134635
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Recent Enhanced Seasonal Temperature Contrast in Japan from Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations (2017)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada, Shuhei Maeda, Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Ryo Mizuta, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Atmosphere Volume: 8 Issue: 3 Pages: 57-57
  • DOI: 10.3390/atmos8030057
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Predicting Future Uncertainty Constraints on Global Warming Projections (2016)
  • Author(s): H. Shiogama, D. Stone, S. Emori, K. Takahashi, S. Mori, A. Maeda, Y. Ishizaki, M. R. Allen
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-7
  • DOI: 10.1038/srep18903
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability (2015)
  • Author(s): Youichi Kamae, Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Ueda, Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 42 Issue: 8 Pages: 2995-3003
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015gl063608
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Rapid Adjustments of Cloud and Hydrological Cycle to Increasing CO2: a Review (2015)
  • Author(s): Youichi Kamae, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Hideo Shiogama
  • Journal Title: Current Climate Change Reports Volume: 1 Issue: 2 Pages: 103-113
  • DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Youichi Kamae, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: 10 Issue: 0 Pages: 122-126
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.2014-025
  • NAID: 130004678075
  • ISSN: 1349-6476
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century (2014)
  • Author(s): Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Geophys. Res. Lett. Volume: 41 Issue: 14 Pages: 5192-5199
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014gl061062
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] 極端現象の過去の人間活動による変化と避けられない将来変化 (2017)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫,今田由紀子, 森正人, 高橋千陽, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 産業革命以降と将来の気候変動-古気候研究との関連も含めて- (2017)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: 平成29年度ISEE研究集会「気候科学と古気候プロキシ研究の接点創出」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 2.0℃安定化から1.5℃安定化への追加緩和努力によって、極端現象の将来変化をどの程度低減できるのか？ (2017)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫,藤森真一郎, 長谷川知子, 高橋潔, 久保田泉, 田中克政, 江守正多, 今田由紀子, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 阿部学, Daniel Mitchell, Daithi Stone, Myles R. Allen
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
• [Presentation] 気温と降水量の極端現象の記録更新に関する要因分析 (2016)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫,今田由紀子, 水田亮, 吉田康平, 森正人, 荒川理, 池田美紀子, 高橋千陽, 荒井美紀, 石井正好, 森信人, 高薮出, 中北英一 , 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-18
• [Presentation] The possibility of revising the climate sensitivity range in the next IPCC report. (2016)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama
  • Organizer: 7th EU-Japan Workshop on Climate Change Research
  • Place of Presentation: 2nd Auditorium, The former Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture Building, Tokyo, Japan
  • Year and Date: 2016-04-26
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] How much does the energy budget approach underestimate the climate sensitivity? (2016)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama
  • Organizer: Joint US-Japan Workshop on Climate Change and Variability
  • Place of Presentation: San Diego (USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-03-21
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) (2016)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama
  • Organizer: Annual meeting of International Detection and Attribution Group
  • Place of Presentation: Boulder (USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-02-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) (2015)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Nathan Gillett, Gabi Hegerl, Daithi Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Reto Knutti
  • Organizer: WCRP/FP7 EMBRACE workshop on CMIP5 Model Analysis and scientific plans for CMIP6
  • Place of Presentation: Dubrovnik (Croatia)
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-20
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Attribution of the June-July 2013 heat wave in the southwestern United States (2015)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Youichi Kamae, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: Our common future under climate change
  • Place of Presentation: Paris (France)
  • Year and Date: 2015-07-07
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE): A New Approach Exploring the Uncertainties of Climate Sensitivity (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Tokuta Yokohata, Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 11th Annual Meeting (AOGS2014)
  • Place of Presentation: ロイトン札幌 (北海道・札幌市)
  • Year and Date: 2014-07-28 – 2014-08-01
• [Presentation] パターンスケーリングの排出シナリオ依存性と線形加法性 (2014)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: パシフィコ横浜（神奈川県・横浜市）
  • Year and Date: 2014-04-28 – 2014-05-02
• [Presentation] Emission scenario dependency of scaling patterns and linear additivity of climate forcing-response relationship (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama
  • Organizer: Pattern Scaling, Climate Model Emulators and their Application to the New Scenario Process
  • Place of Presentation: Boulder (USA)
  • Year and Date: 2014-04-23 – 2014-04-25
  • Invited