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Studies on mechanisms for variability in Typhoon track forecasts

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26282111
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypePartial Multi-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Enomoto Takeshi  京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (10358765)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 山崎 哲  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, アプリケーションラボ, 研究員 (20633887)
Research Collaborator Sato Kazutoshi  
Nakano Masuo  
Matsueda Mio  
Miyachi Tetsuro  
Yamaguchi Munehiko  
Yamane Shozo  
Yoshioka Hiroaki  
Yoshida Akira (Kuwano Akira)  
Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥14,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,330,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Keywords熱帯低気圧 / 大気大循環モデル / 数値天気予報 / データ同化 / アンサンブル予報 / 台風 / 偏西風 / 梅雨前線 / 西日本豪雨 / 太平洋高気圧 / モンスーントラフ / 渦位 / 自然現象観測・予測 / 自然災害予測・分析・対策 / 数値予報
Outline of Final Research Achievements

A cross analysis-model forecast system has been developed. Several research and operational atmospheric general circulation models and analyses were employed to conduct a number of forecast experiments, including Typhoon Yagi 2013, Super-typhoon Haiyan 2013 that caused damages in Philippines, and Typhoon Prapiroon 2018 that approached Japan prior to the heavy rainfall event in July 2018. Sensitivity to initial conditions and model and its resolution are clarified in these experiments. The improved ensemble data assimilation system were used to identify contributions to better forecasts including typhoon tracks. Parts of the studies conducted in this project contributed to the development of operational consensus and genesis forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

台風の発生予報や強度予報は,進路予報が正確であることを前提としており,台風に関する情報の中で進路予報は防災上最も重要なものと考えられる。近年台風の進路予報誤差は1日で平均100kmを下回る程度に改善されているが,時に大外しする事例が見られる。本研究では台風進路予測の誤差の要因を分析する手法を開発し,数々の事例に適用して誤差の特徴を明らかにした上で,気象庁が行う現業の台風予報の開発・改善を通じて社会的に貢献することができた。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • 2014 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (101 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (10 results) Journal Article (26 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Peer Reviewed: 18 results,  Open Access: 22 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 5 results) Presentation (54 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 22 results,  Invited: 7 results) Book (2 results) Remarks (9 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国科学院大気物理研究所(中国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 香港城市大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 欧州中期予報センター(その他の国・地域(欧州))

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国科学院大気物理研究所(中国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 香港城市大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 欧州中期予報センター(欧州連合)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国気象局(中国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 欧州中期予報センター(欧州連合)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 欧州中期予報センター(欧州連合)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国気象局(中国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 平成30年豪雨に対する台風第7号の予報進路の影響2019

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Journal Title

      平成30年度「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会報告

      Volume: - Pages: 37-40

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Model Uncertainty2018

    • Author(s)
      Zhou, F., W. Duan, H. Zhang, and M. Yamaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

      Volume: 35 Issue: 10 Pages: 1277-1290

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00376-018-7095-9

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Improvement in predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations2018

    • Author(s)
      Sato, K., J. Inoue, A. Yamazaki, J.-H. Kim, A. Makshtas, V. Kustov, M. Maturilli, and K. Dethloff
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 8 Issue: 1 Pages: 12104-12104

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Tropical cyclone forecasts for the Western North Pacific with high-resolution atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-ocean models2018

    • Author(s)
      Ito, K., M. Sawada, and M. Yamaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics

      Volume: 67 Issue: 0 Pages: 15-34

    • DOI

      10.2467/mripapers.67.15

    • NAID

      130007395804

    • ISSN
      0031-126X, 1880-6643
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting2018

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M., H Titley, and L. Magnusson
    • Journal Title

      Sub-topic report of WMO 9th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9)

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 第5回再解析国際会議報告2018

    • Author(s)
      古林慎哉,原田昌,小林ちあき,原田やよい,大島和裕,中村尚,福井真,藤原正智,山崎哲,芳村圭
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 65 Pages: 431-439

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimates of flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda M., and T. N. Palmer
    • Journal Title

      Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 713 Pages: 1012-1027

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.3265

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics2018

    • Author(s)
      Collins Matthew、Minobe Shoshiro、Barreiro Marcelo、Bordoni Simona、Kaspi Yohai、Kuwano-Yoshida Akira、Keenlyside Noel、Manzini Elisa、O’Reilly Christopher H.、Sutton Rowan、Xie Shang-Ping、Zolina Olga
    • Journal Title

      Nature Climate Change

      Volume: 8 Issue: 2 Pages: 101-108

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Mechanisms for the Maintenance of the Wintertime Basin-Scale Atmospheric Response to Decadal SST Variability in the North Pacific Subarctic Frontal Zone2018

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Okajima, Hisashi Nakamura, Kazuaki Nishii, Takafumi Miyasaka, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Bunmei Taguchi, Masato Mori, Yu Kosaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 31 Issue: 1 Pages: 297-315

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-17-0200.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] PALAU2013で観測された台風第1304号の発生予報実験における初期値依存性の解析2017

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋, 筆保弘徳, 榎本剛, 勝俣昌己, 山崎哲, 横井覚, 辻野智紀, 舛田あゆみ, 城岡竜一
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 64 Pages: 873-885

    • NAID

      40021439347

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational NWP Models: A Quarter Century and Beyond2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M., J. Ishida, H. Sato, and M. Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

      Volume: 98 Issue: 11 Pages: 2337-2349

    • DOI

      10.1175/bams-d-16-0133.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Using the Early Stage Dvorak Analysis and Global Ensembles2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M. and N. Koide
    • Journal Title

      Wea. Forecasting

      Volume: 32 Issue: 6 Pages: 2133-2141

    • DOI

      10.1175/waf-d-17-0056.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 大気大循環モデルを用いた2013年台風第3号Yagiの進路予報実験2017

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛, 吉田聡, 山崎哲, 中野満寿男, 山根省三, 山口宗彦, 松枝未遠
    • Journal Title

      京都大学防災研究所年報

      Volume: 60B Pages: 466-469

    • NAID

      120006399006

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 弱コリオリ力におけるハリケーン強度のアンサンブル予報実験2017

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋, 榎本剛
    • Journal Title

      京都大学防災研究所年報

      Volume: 60B Pages: 479-485

    • NAID

      120006399004

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Genesis of Super Cyclone Pam (2015): Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Modulation of Large-Scale Environmental Circulation and the Madden Julian Oscillation2017

    • Author(s)
      Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Tomoki Miyakawa, Tomoe Nasuno, Masaki Satoh
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 8 Pages: 3143-3159

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-16-0208.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Impact of the Radiosonde Observations of Cold Surge over the Philippine Sea on the Tropical Region and the Southern Hemisphere in December 20122017

    • Author(s)
      Yamazaki, A., T. Enomoto, T. Miyoshi, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, and N. Komori
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 13 Issue: 0 Pages: 19-24

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2017-004

    • NAID

      130005400048

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results2017

    • Author(s)
      Nakano, M., A. Wada, M. Sawada, H. Yoshimura, R. Onishi, S. Kawahara, W. Sasaki, T. Nasuno, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sugi and Y. Takeuchi
    • Journal Title

      Geosci. Model Dev.

      Volume: 10 Issue: 3 Pages: 1363-1381

    • DOI

      10.5194/gmd-10-1363-2017

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] AFES-LETKF全球アンサンブル再解析を用いた研究2017

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲
    • Journal Title

      号外海洋「データ同化研究と海洋学への貢献-海洋データ同化夏の学校;第20回記念号-

      Volume: 号外59

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 全球大気海洋結合モデルを用いた実験的アンサンブル大気再解析2017

    • Author(s)
      小守信正, 榎本 剛, 三好建正, 山崎 哲, 吉田 聡, 田口文明
    • Journal Title

      号外海洋「データ同化研究と海洋学への貢献-海洋データ同化夏の学校;第20回記念号-

      Volume: 号外59

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 数値天気予報における予測変動メカニズムの解明2017

    • Author(s)
      山崎 哲, 中野満寿男, 榎本 剛, 吉田 聡, 山口宗彦, 松枝未遠, 山根省三
    • Journal Title

      Annual Report of the Earth Simulator

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the GRAPES model for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I; initial uncertainties2016

    • Author(s)
      Zhou, Feifan and Munehiko Yamaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Adv. Atmos. Sci.

      Volume: 33 Issue: 7 Pages: 841-851

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00376-016-5238-4

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The TIGGE project and its achievements2015

    • Author(s)
      Swinbank, R., M. Kyouda, P Buchanan, L. Froude, T. M. Hamill, T. Hewson, J. H. Keller, M. Matsueda, J. Methven, F. Pappernberger, M. Scheuerer, H. Titley, M. Yamaguchi, and L. Wilson
    • Journal Title

      Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

      Volume: 96 Issue: 1 Pages: 49-67

    • DOI

      10.1175/bams-d-13-00191.1

    • NAID

      120007129605

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report 2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Simple Sensitivity Analysis Using Ensemble Forecasts2015

    • Author(s)
      Enomoto, T., S. Yamane, and W. Ohfuchi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 93 Issue: 2 Pages: 199-213

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2015-011

    • NAID

      130005069474

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report 2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] North Western Pacific tropical cyclone ensemble forecast project2014

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Tropical Cyclone Research and Review

      Volume: 3 Pages: 193-201

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for hurricane Sandy2014

    • Author(s)
      Linus Magnusson, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, Simon T. K. Lang, Alan Thorpe, Nils Wedi, Munehiko Yamaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Mon. Wea. Rev

      Volume: 142 Issue: 5 Pages: 1962-1981

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-13-00228.1

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Using the Local Deepening Rate to Indicate Extratropical Cyclone Activity2014

    • Author(s)
      Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 10 Issue: 0 Pages: 199-203

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2014-042

    • NAID

      130004713107

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] 平成30年7月豪雨に対する台風第7号の予想進路の影響2019

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      京都大学防災研究所研究発表講演会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2018年台風第7号の進路予想と鉛直構造2019

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      低気圧と暴風雨に係るワークショップ2019
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Expectations for _the Japanese regional reanalysis _in high-impact weather research2019

    • Author(s)
      Enomoto, T.
    • Organizer
      Meeting towards the Japan regional reanalysis
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Global 7km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Joaquin (2015) and Lionrock (2016) cases2018

    • Author(s)
      Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi
    • Organizer
      33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Use of TIGGE in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting2018

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M.
    • Organizer
      WMO/WWRP PDEF Working Group Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Review of construction of ensembles2018

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M.
    • Organizer
      WMO/WWRP PDEF Working Group Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 2013年台風第3号Yagiの高解像度予報実験2018

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛,吉田聡,山崎哲,中野満寿男,山根省三,山口宗彦,松枝未遠,Glenn Carver, Jean-Raymond Bidlot
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] スマート社会を支える台風予報の高度化2018

    • Author(s)
      山口宗彦
    • Organizer
      環境研究シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 平成30年7月豪雨に対する台風第7号の予報進路の影響2018

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      研究集会「季節予測システムと異常気象の要因分析」
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting2018

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M., H Titley, and L. Magnusson
    • Organizer
      WMO 9th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 平成30年7月豪雨と台風第7号の初期時刻依存性実験2018

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      2018年度日本気象学会関西支部第3回例会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 低緯度におけるハリケーン強化過程のダウンスケール実験2018

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋・榎本剛
    • Organizer
      平成29年度京都大学防災研究所研究発表講演会, 京都大学宇治キャンパス(京都府宇治市)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ダウンスケール実験で再現された低緯度におけるハリケーン強化過程の解析2017

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋・榎本剛
    • Organizer
      「様々な結合過程がもたらす異常気象の実態とそのメカニズム」に関する研究集会, 京都大学宇治キャンパス(京都府宇治市)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] AFES-LETKFデータ同化システムへの観測インパクト評価診断ツールの実装.2017

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲,三好建正,榎本剛,小守信正,猪上淳
    • Organizer
      「様々な結合過程がもたらす異常気象の実態とそのメカニズム」に関する研究集会, 京都大学宇治キャンパス(京都府宇治市)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] AFES-LETKF data assimilation system for an experimental atmospheric global ensemble reanalysis2017

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamazaki, Takeshi Enomoto, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Nobumasa Komori
    • Organizer
      5th International Conference on Reanalysis, Angelicum University (Rome, Italy)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] WGNE現業全球モデルによる台風予測の国際比較2017

    • Author(s)
      山口宗彦, 石田 純一, 佐藤 均, 中川 雅之
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会, 北海道大学(札幌)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] AFES-LETKF 同化システムへの対観測予報感度診断ツールの実装2017

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲・三好建正・榎本剛・小守信正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会, 北海道大学(札幌)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ダウンスケール実験を用いた低緯度で発生した熱帯低気圧の強化過程の解析-2016年ハリケーンPALIの事例-2017

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋・榎本剛
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会, 北海道大学(札幌)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] d4PDFにおける北太平洋低気圧活動の長期変化2017

    • Author(s)
      吉田聡、中村尚、竹見哲也、中北英一
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会, 北海道大学(札幌)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assessment of track and precipitation distribution of tropical cyclone Dineo2017

    • Author(s)
      Celio Matuele and Shozo Yamane
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会, 北海道大学(札幌)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assessment of track and precipitation of tropical cyclone Dineo using global ensenble forecast2017

    • Author(s)
      Celio Matuele and Shozo Yamane
    • Organizer
      Joint IAPSO-IAMAS-IAGA Assembly (Cape Town, South Africa)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7)2017

    • Author(s)
      Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi,Yoshiaki Takeuchi
    • Organizer
      AOGS2017, Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre (Singapore)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋の爆弾低気圧が海洋深層に及ぼす影響2017

    • Author(s)
      吉田聡、佐々木英治、笹井義一、細田滋毅
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会, 国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都渋谷区)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋海洋深層への爆弾低気圧の影響:シミュレーションと観測2017

    • Author(s)
      吉田聡、佐々木英治、笹井義一、細田滋毅
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint meeting 2017, 幕張メッセ(千葉県千葉市)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh Nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for Improving Typhoon Forecast (TYMIP-G7)2017

    • Author(s)
      Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint meeting 2017, 幕張メッセ(千葉県千葉市)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Additional Arctic observations improved forecast skill of a typhoon over midlatitude2017

    • Author(s)
      Kazutoshi Sato, Jun Inoue and Akira Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint meeting 2017, 幕張メッセ(千葉県千葉市)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The TIGGE and S2S Museums - websites of ensemble forecast products2017

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., T. Nakazawa, and A. Yamagami
    • Organizer
      7th International Verification Workshop, VKU Forum (Berlin, Germany)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Introduction to numerical weather prediction2017

    • Author(s)
      Enomoto, T.
    • Organizer
      South-East Asia School on Tropical Atmospheric Science (SEASTAS)
    • Place of Presentation
      Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Application of ensemble-based techniques to tropical disturbances2017

    • Author(s)
      Enomoto, T.
    • Organizer
      The second International Workshop on Extreme Weather in Changing Climate in the Maritime Continent
    • Place of Presentation
      Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Implementing the ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) method with the AFES-LETKF data assimilation system2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamazaki, A., T. Miyoshi and N. Komori
    • Organizer
      The 3rd RIKEN International Symposium on Data Assimilation (RISDA2017)
    • Place of Presentation
      RIKEN AICS, Kobe, Japan
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Recent Research and Development at MRI/JMA to Improve Typhoon Forecasts2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi, M., U. Shimada, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada and H. Owada
    • Organizer
      71st Intergovernmental Hurricane Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, USA
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Effects of the Coriolis Force on Intensity of Hurricane PALI in Ensemble Experiments2017

    • Author(s)
      吉岡 大秋,榎本 剛
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ,千葉県千葉市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-based experimental atmospheric reanalysis using a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM2016

    • Author(s)
      Komori, N., T. Enomoto, T. Miyoshi, A. Yamazaki, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, B. Taguchi
    • Organizer
      Fifth International Symposium on Data Assimilation 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Reading, Reading, UK
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-18
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 衛星解析と全球アンサンブル予報を利用した台風発生予報2016

    • Author(s)
      山口宗彦, 小出直久
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京都渋谷区
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] OpenIFSによる予報実験2016

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      激甚化する台風・爆弾低気圧起源の災害ハザード予測研究ワークショップ2016
    • Place of Presentation
      九州大学伊都キャンパス, 福岡県福岡市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 2013年台風第3号Yagiの予報実験2016

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学, 愛知県名古屋市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アンサンブルダウンスケール実験による台風発生メカニズムに関する解析―2016年ハリケーンPALIの事例―2016

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋,榎本剛
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学, 愛知県名古屋市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 海洋・大気変動予測とバイオロギング2016

    • Author(s)
      吉田聡,西川はつみ
    • Organizer
      東京大学大気海洋研究所共同利用研究集会「バイオロギングと海洋・大気変動予測の未来 ―Sustainability Initiative in the Marginal Seas of South and East Asia (SIMSEA)の推進に向けて」
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学大気海洋研究所, 千葉県柏市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] OpenIFSによる予報実験2016

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛,吉田聡,山崎哲,中野満寿男,山根省三,山口宗彦,松枝未遠
    • Organizer
      東アジア域における大気循環の季節内変動に関する研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所, 京都府宇治市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 弱コリオリ下でのハリケーンのアンサンブル予報実験2016

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋,榎本剛
    • Organizer
      東アジア域における大気循環の季節内変動に関する研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所, 京都府宇治市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving Typhoon forecast (TYMIP-G7)2016

    • Author(s)
      Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Global Precipitation System 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      海洋研究開発機構横浜研究所, 神奈川県横浜市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Characteristics of tropical rainfall and diabatic heating in Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7)2016

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Sawada, Hideaki Kawai, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Akiyoshi Wada, Masuo Nakano, Ryo, Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Eiki Shindo, Takeshi Iriguchi, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Masato, Sugi, Tomoe Nasuno, Wataru Sasaki, Hiromitsu Fuchigami, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Global Precipitation System 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      海洋研究開発機構横浜研究所, 神奈川県横浜市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving Typhoon forecast (TYMIP-G7)2016

    • Author(s)
      Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro, Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato, Sugi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
    • Organizer
      4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models
    • Place of Presentation
      The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Hakone, Japan
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] アンサンブルダウンスケール実験における台風発生の初期値依存性に関する解析 ―2013年台風4号の事例―2016

    • Author(s)
      吉岡大秋, 筆保弘徳, 榎本剛, 勝俣昌己, 山崎哲, 横井覚, 辻野智紀, 舛田あゆみ, 城岡竜一
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター, 東京都渋谷区
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アンサンブルの森に誘われて(日本気象学会正野賞受賞記念講演)2016

    • Author(s)
      松枝未遠
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学, 愛知県名古屋市
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 北西太平洋域における台風発生予測可能性2015

    • Author(s)
      中野満寿男
    • Organizer
      平成27年度京都大学防災研究所共同研究集会「台風研究会」「複合系台風災害のメカニズムに関する研究集会-気象学・海洋学・海岸工学・ 土木工学・建築工学・生態学を交えて-」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 鉛直シア下で急発達する台風の進路予報誤差2015

    • Author(s)
      山口宗彦
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2015年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都テルサ(京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-30
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アンサンブル予報を用いた簡易予報感度解析2015

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2015年度秋季大会「極域・寒冷域」及び「観測システム・予測可能性」 合同研究連絡会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都テルサ(京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-28
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 現業予報モデルを用いた予測可能性研究2015

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2015年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      つくば国際会議場(茨城県つくば市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 夏季の北西太平洋域における台風発生予測可能性2015

    • Author(s)
      中野満寿男
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2015年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      つくば国際会議場(茨城県つくば市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 現業数値予報モデルを用いた予測可能性研究2015

    • Author(s)
      榎本剛
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2015年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      つくば国際会議場(茨城県つくば市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] メソ気象と総観気象のつながり2014

    • Author(s)
      吉田聡,榎本剛,山口宗彦,山崎哲,中野満寿男
    • Organizer
      名古屋大学地球水循環研究センター共同研究課題「グローバルスケールとメソスケールを貫く気象学」研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県名古屋市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-25
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Advances in Forecasting Motion2014

    • Author(s)
      Munehiko Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      WMO 8th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8)
    • Place of Presentation
      韓国済州島
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-02
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 局所発達率を用いた低気圧活動解析2014

    • Author(s)
      吉田聡
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2014年春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      横浜情報文化センター(神奈川県横浜市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-22
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 台風についてわかっていることいないこと2018

    • Author(s)
      筆保 弘徳、山田 広幸、宮本 佳明、伊藤 耕介、山口 宗彦、金田 幸恵
    • Total Pages
      242
    • Publisher
      ベレ出版
    • ISBN
      9784860645557
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 台風の正体2014

    • Author(s)
      筆保弘徳,伊藤耕介,山口宗彦
    • Total Pages
      184
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] TIGGE Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report 2016 Annual Research Report 2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] S2S Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 研究集会「季節予測システムの進展と異常気象の要因分析」

    • URL

      https://www.dpac.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/anomaly/workshop2018

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 北極に台風を置く

    • URL

      https://www.dpac.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/2018/02/26/tc-at-np.html

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] IWTC-9

    • URL

      https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/IWTC-9.html

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] S2S Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 台風の進路予測の変動メカニズムの解明

    • URL

      http://www.dpac.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/qthoren/projects/tctrack

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] TIGGE museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 2015年(平成27年)の台風について

    • URL

      http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1512/21e/typhoon2015.html

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2022-08-19  

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