| Budget Amount *help |
¥15,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,630,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study was aimed to project the future costs trends of long-term care from 2010 until 2040, and to analyze the life course of old-old people in Japan and Sweden. Regarding the projection of the future cost trends two different scenarios were used: the first scenario based on a constant level of need for LTC by age group and gender, and the other based on a continuation of the present LTC need trends until 2025. For Japan this resulted in a projected cost increase of 93% for the first scenario and 80% for the second scenario. For Sweden the corresponding result was 52% and 24% respectively. The future individual states in terms of death, functional dependency, and level of LTC depends to a large degree on the initial state. 78-year-old persons who have no functional dependency and no LTC have a much higher probability to survive the next 10-15 years compared to people of the same age who already are dependent and in need of LTC services.
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