Variation mechanism and predictability of tropospheric annular mode
| Project/Area Number |
26287115
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
KURODA YUHJI 気象研究所, 気候研究部, 研究官 (80343888)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥16,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,870,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥6,760,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,560,000)
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| Keywords | 環状モード / 対流圏 / 成層圏 / 予測可能性 / 惑星規模波 / 下方伝播 / 気象学 / 大規模大気循環 / 環状モード変動 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigate the maintenance mechanism of the annular mode, which is the most prevailing variation mode in the extratropical troposphere, using a reanalysis dataset. It is found that the quasi-stationary planetary waves and transient synoptic waves play the most important role in driving the annular mode in the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. It is also revealed that the vertical propagation property of planetary waves in the recovery phase of stratospheric sudden warming events is intimately related to the subsequent formation of annular mode. Moreover, several aspects of the predictability variation of the stratospheric circulation, which are closely related with the tropospheric annular mode, are clarified through the analyses on ensemble reforecast experiments conducted by the MRI (Meteorological Research Institute) ensemble prediction system which is constructed in this study.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
対流圏中高緯度大気で最も卓越する変動成分である対流圏環状モード変動を駆動する波動を明らかにすることができた。また、成層圏突然昇温現象の終了時における惑星規模波の鉛直伝播特性が環状モードの形成と関連していることが明らかになった。さらに、これまで力学的には比較的安定と考えられていた成層圏循環は、成層圏突然昇温の生起時などには力学的に極度に不安定となり、成層圏循環自体に予測障壁が存在することが初めて明らかになった。
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Report
(6 results)
Research Products
(134 results)
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[Journal Article] Examining the predictability of the stratospheric sudden warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems2016
Author(s)
Tripathi, O. P., M. Baldwin, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Charron, J. C. H. Cheung, S. D. Eckermann, E. Gerber, D. R. Jackson, Y. Kuroda, A. Lang, J. McLay, R. Mizuta, C. Reynolds, G. Roff, M. Sigmond, S.-W. Son, and T. Stockdale
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Journal Title
Mon. Wea. Rev.
Volume: なし
Pages: 1935-1960
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts2015
Author(s)
Tripathi, O. P., M. Baldwin, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Charron, S. D. Eckermann, E. Gerber, R. G. Harrison, D. R. Jackson, B-M. Kim, Y. Kuroda, A. Lang, S. Mahmood, R. Mizuta, G. Roff, M. Sigmond, and S-W. Son
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Journal Title
Q. J. R. Met. Soc
Volume: なし
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed
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[Book] 気候変動の事典2017
Author(s)
山川修治、常盤勝美、渡来靖
Total Pages
472
Publisher
朝倉書店
ISBN
9784254161298
Related Report
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