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Meteorological analysis and prediction on the low-dimensional space

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26310201
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypePartial Multi-year Fund
Section特設分野
Research Field Mathematical Sciences in Search of New Cooperation
Research InstitutionHokkaido University

Principal Investigator

Inatsu Masaru  北海道大学, 理学研究院, 教授 (80422450)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 中野 直人  京都大学, 国際高等教育院, 特定講師 (30612642)
荒井 迅  中部大学, 創発学術院, 教授 (80362432)
Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) Mukougawa Hitoshi  京都大学, 大学院理学研究科, 教授 (20261349)
Project Period (FY) 2014-07-18 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,780,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥6,110,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,410,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥7,020,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,620,000)
Keywords温帯低気圧 / 数理科学 / 位相幾何学 / 数理気象学 / 予測可能性 / 力学系 / 画像解析 / 大気現象 / 数理物理
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Meteorological low-frequency variability and prediction: A 5,000-yr integeration with an AGCM was conducted. We considered the relation between data-orbit manifold and 4-dimensional stochastic differential equation, focusing on the troposphere in boreal winter. After the breeding-growing-mode method was implemented in the AGCM, we compared multiple realisation in the long-term integration on the phase-space analysis with the initial-value growing.
Geometrical change of extratropical cyclones: We developed a brand-new cyclone tracking programme with persistent homology. By reconstructing data with merge-trees based on maxima and saddles of the scaler field, the neighbouring among homology classes were clarified. The cyclone identification with this algorithm is consistent with conventional meteorological analysis.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • 2014 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (38 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014

All Journal Article (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 10 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 3 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (27 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Invited: 5 results) Funded Workshop (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] A Cyclone Identification Algorithm with Persistent Homology and Merge-Tree2017

    • Author(s)
      Inatsu, M., H. Kato, Y. Katsuyama, Y. Hiraoka, and I. Obayashi
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 13 Issue: 0 Pages: 214-218

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2017-039

    • NAID

      130006210623

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] An alternative estimate of potential predictability on the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase space using S2S models2017

    • Author(s)
      Ichikawa, Y., and M. Inatsu
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 8 Issue: 8 Pages: 150-150

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos8080150

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Global warming response of snowpack at mountain range in northern Japan estimated using multiple dynamically downscalled data2017

    • Author(s)
      Katsuyama, T., M. Inatsu, K. Nakamura and S. Matoba
    • Journal Title

      Cold Regions Science and Technology

      Volume: 136 Pages: 62-71

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.01.006

    • NAID

      120006551573

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Response of tropical cyclone tracks to sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific.2016

    • Author(s)
      Katsube, K, and M. Inatsu
    • Journal Title

      J. Climate

      Volume: 29 Issue: 5 Pages: 1955-1975

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-15-0198.1

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Methods to Evaluate Prediction Skill in the Madden-Julian Oscillation Phase Space2016

    • Author(s)
      Ichikawa, Y., and M. Inatsu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 94 Issue: 3 Pages: 257-267

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2016-014

    • NAID

      130005159718

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 気象学の色遣い~均等色空間を利用したカラーリング~2016

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將,濱田 篤
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 63 Pages: 803-809

    • NAID

      40020995059

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Long-term assessment of airborne radiocesium after the Fukushima nuclear accident: re-suspension from bare soil and forest ecosystems2016

    • Author(s)
      Kajino, M., Ishizuka, M., Igarashi, Y., Kita, K., Yoshikawa, C. and Inatsu, M.
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 16 Issue: 20 Pages: 13149-13172

    • DOI

      10.5194/acp-16-13149-2016

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Sampling downscaling in summertime precipitation over Hokkaido.2016

    • Author(s)
      Tamaki, Y., M. Inatsu, R. Kuno, and N. Nakano
    • Journal Title

      J. Meteor. Soc. Japan

      Volume: 94A Issue: 0 Pages: 17-26

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2015-023

    • NAID

      130005125544

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Time-series analysis and predictability estimates by empirical SDE modelling2016

    • Author(s)
      N. Nakano, M. Inatsu, S. Kusuoka and Y. Saiki
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and Its Application

      Volume: 2016

    • NAID

      130005277723

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Predictability of wintertime stratospheric circulation examined using a non-stationary fluctuation dissipation relation2015

    • Author(s)
      M. Inatsu, N. Nakano, S. Kusuoka, and H. Mukougawa
    • Journal Title

      J. Atmos. Sci.

      Volume: 72 Issue: 2 Pages: 774-786

    • DOI

      10.1175/jas-d-14-0088.1

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Error analysis of an inverse problem of a stochastic differential equation arising from an empirical modelling for dimensionality-reduced systems2017

    • Author(s)
      Naoto Nakano, Masaru Inatsu, Seiichiro Kusuoka and Yoshitaka Saiki
    • Organizer
      The 10th International Conference on Computational Physics
    • Place of Presentation
      Macau SAR(China)
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-19
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Conley index for real and complex dynamical systems2017

    • Author(s)
      Zin Arai
    • Organizer
      冬の力学系研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      日本大学軽井沢研修所(長野県・軽井沢市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-10
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] パーシステント・ホモロジーによる低気圧・前線トラッキング2017

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將, 加藤颯人, 平岡裕章, 大林一平
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On topological tools for network analysis2016

    • Author(s)
      Zin Arai
    • Organizer
      情報セキュリティにおける数学的方法とその実践
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(北海道・札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-19
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 台風の強度と経路に関する海面水温のみの効果の抽出2016

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將
    • Organizer
      日本農業気象学会北海道支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(北海道・札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋における海面水温が台風経路に及ぼす影響2016

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將
    • Organizer
      台風研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学宇治キャンパス(京都府・宇治市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 複素から見た分岐理論2016

    • Author(s)
      荒井迅
    • Organizer
      芝浦数理談話会
    • Place of Presentation
      芝浦工業大学(埼玉県・さいたま市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-21
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical evaluated SDE modelling for dimensionality-reduced systems and its predictability estimates2016

    • Author(s)
      Naoto Nakano, Masaru Inatsu, Seiichiro Kusuoka and Yoshitaka Saiki
    • Organizer
      SIAM Conference on Mathematical Planet Earth
    • Place of Presentation
      Philadelphia(USA)
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-02
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋における海面水温が台風経路に及ぼす影響2016

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將・勝部 弘太郎
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会北海道支部第1回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(北海道・札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Methods to evaluate prediction skill in the Madden-Julian oscillation phase space2016

    • Author(s)
      Ichikawa, Y., and M. Inatsu
    • Organizer
      JpGU
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ国際会議場(千葉県・千葉市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-22
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋における海面水温が台風経路に及ぼす影響2016

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將・勝部 弘太郎
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都・渋谷区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-18
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Response of tropical cyclone tracks to sea surface temperature in western North Pacific2016

    • Author(s)
      Inatsu, M., and K. Katsube
    • Organizer
      EGU
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna (Austria)
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-22
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On rigorous verification of the crossed mapping condition2016

    • Author(s)
      Zin Arai
    • Organizer
      Computation in Dynamics
    • Place of Presentation
      プロビデンス(アメリカ合衆国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Error analysis of an inverse problem of a stochastic differential equation arising from an empirical modelling and its application2016

    • Author(s)
      中野直人
    • Organizer
      第17回北東数学解析研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(海道札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-02-15
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Time-series analysis and predictability estimates by empirical SDE modelling2015

    • Author(s)
      N. Nakano, M. Inatsu, S. Kusuoka and Y. Saiki
    • Organizer
      The 47th ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and Its Application
    • Place of Presentation
      ホノルル(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 稲津 將・中野直人・楠岡誠一郎・向川均2015

    • Author(s)
      確率微分方程式を用いた成層圏・対流圏の予測可能性の解析
    • Organizer
      日本応用数理学会
    • Place of Presentation
      金沢大学(石川県金沢市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Application of a topological-computation method to meteorological data2015

    • Author(s)
      森田 英俊・稲津 將・國府 寛司
    • Organizer
      日本応用数理学会
    • Place of Presentation
      金沢大学(石川県金沢市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 経験的SDEモデルによる時系列データ解析とアンサンブル予測可能性評価2015

    • Author(s)
      中野 直人
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会2015
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山大学(岡山県岡山市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-07
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式モデルを用いたベクトル時系列データ解析におけるアンサンブル予測可能性評価2015

    • Author(s)
      中野 直人
    • Organizer
      RIMS研究集会「力学系とその諸分野への応用」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-06-30
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式を用いた成層圏・対流圏の予測可能性の解析2015

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2015年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      つくば国際会議場(茨城県つくば市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式モデルを用いたベクトル時系列データ解析におけるアンサンブル予測可能性評価2015

    • Author(s)
      中野直人・稲津將・楠岡誠一郎・齊木吉隆
    • Organizer
      日本数学会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学(東京都千代田区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-23
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On parameter loci of the Henon family2015

    • Author(s)
      Zin Arai
    • Organizer
      ACCA-UK/JP Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Imperial College London, London(英国)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-13
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式モデルを用いたベクトル時系列データ解析における予測可能性評価2014

    • Author(s)
      中野直人・稲津將・楠岡誠一郎・齊木吉隆
    • Organizer
      応用数学合同研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      龍谷大学(滋賀県大津市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-20
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On combinatorial and topological clustering of dynamical behaviors in fluid flows2014

    • Author(s)
      Zin Arai
    • Organizer
      流体方程式の構造と特異性に迫る数値解析・数値計算
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県名古屋市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-08
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 非定常揺動散逸定理による冬季成層圏循環の予測可能性2014

    • Author(s)
      稲津 將・中野直人・楠岡誠一郎・向川均
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会
    • Place of Presentation
      福岡国際会議場(福岡県福岡市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Predictability of Stratosphere-Troposphere Dynamical Coupling Examined by Ensemble Forecast Datasets.2014

    • Author(s)
      Hitoshi Mukougawa, Toshihiko Hirooka, Kunihiko Kodera, Yuhji Kuroda, and Shunsuke Noguchi
    • Organizer
      14th European Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Clarion Congress Hotel Prague, Prague(チェコ共和国)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-19
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 確率微分方程式モデルを用いたベクトル時系列データ解析2014

    • Author(s)
      中野直人
    • Organizer
      RIMS研究集会「偏微分方程式に付随する確率論的問題」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-18
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] MaeT mini-workshop2016

    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(札幌市北区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-14
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2014-09-09   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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