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Developing Predictive Simulation Framework with Confidence Level for Stochastic Process and Its Application to Knowledge Discovery

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26330261
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Intelligent informatics
Research InstitutionAoyama Gakuin University

Principal Investigator

OHARA Kouzou  青山学院大学, 理工学部, 准教授 (30294127)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 斉藤 和巳  静岡県立大学, 経営情報学部, 教授 (80379544)
木村 昌弘  龍谷大学, 理工学部, 教授 (10396153)
Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords予測シミュレーション / 確率モデル / 機械学習 / 統計数学 / 知識発見
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this work, we addressed a problem of efficiently estimating the influence of a node in information diffusion over a social network. Since the information diffusion is a stochastic process, the influence degree of a node is quantified by the expectation, which is usually obtained by very time consuming many runs of simulation. We proposed a framework for predictive simulation based on the leave-N-out cross validation technique that estimates the approximation error of the influence degree of each node without knowing the true influence degree. We experimentally showed that it can serve as a good measure to solve the problem with far fewer runs of simulation ensuring the accuracy. Besides, we applied that framework to computation of node centrality in order to show the broad utility of the proposed resampling-based framework. In addition, we also devised an efficient algorithm that runs an individual information diffusion simulation in parallel on a distributed computing environment.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014

All Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results)

  • [Presentation] 社会ネットワークにおける影響最大化問題を解く並列分散アルゴリズムの提案2017

    • Author(s)
      佐々木 亮輔,豊田 哲也,大原 剛三
    • Organizer
      第9回データ工学と情報マネジメントに関するフォーラム(DEIM2017)
    • Place of Presentation
      高山グリーンホテル(岐阜県・高山市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Accelerating computation of distance based centrality measures for spatial networks2016

    • Author(s)
      Kouzou Ohara, Kazumi Saito, Masahiro Kimura and Hiroshi Motoda
    • Organizer
      The Nineteenth International Conference on Discovery Science (DS2016)
    • Place of Presentation
      Bari (Italy)
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-19
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Change Point Detection for Information Diffusion Tree2015

    • Author(s)
      Kouzou Ohara, Kazumi Saito, Masahiro Kimura and Hiroshi Motoda
    • Organizer
      The Eighteenth Internatioanal Conference on Discovery Science(DS2015)
    • Place of Presentation
      Banff (Canada)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-04
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 信頼度つきギャップ分析による社会ネットワークからの高中心性 ノード群同定2015

    • Author(s)
      大原 剛三, 斉藤 和巳, 木村 昌弘, 元田 浩
    • Organizer
      第29回人工知能学会全国大会(JSAI2015)
    • Place of Presentation
      公立はこだて未来大学(北海道・函館市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-30
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Resampling-based Gap Analysis for Detecting Nodes with High Centrality on Large Social Network2015

    • Author(s)
      Kouzou Ohara, Kazumi Saito, Masahiro Kimura, Hiroshi Motoda
    • Organizer
      The Nineteenth Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (PAKDD2015)
    • Place of Presentation
      Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnum)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-19
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] リサンプリング法に基づくギャップ分析を用いた高中心性ノードの同定2014

    • Author(s)
      大原 剛三,斉藤 和巳,木村 昌弘,元田 浩
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会第103回 知識ベースシステム研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      慶応大学日吉キャンパス(神奈川県・横浜市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-20
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Resampling-based Framework for Estimating Node Centrality of Large Social Network2014

    • Author(s)
      Kouzou Ohara, Kazumi Saito, Masahiro Kimura and Hiroshi Motoda
    • Organizer
      The 17th International Conference on Discovery Science (DS 2014)
    • Place of Presentation
      Bled (Slovenia)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-10
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 社会ネットワーク上の強影響度ノード同定のためのリサンプリングに基づく予測シミュレーション法の提案2014

    • Author(s)
      大原 剛三,斉藤 和巳,木村 昌弘,元田 浩
    • Organizer
      2014年度人工知能学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      ひめぎんホール別館(愛媛県・松山市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-15
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2018-03-22  

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