| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Nobel method of forecasting the wind speed for short time is proposed. In wind speed prediction using a neural network, the model is generated every time using past similar wind speed data. To select the past wind speed data similar to the present situation, the coefficients of the vector auto regressive (VAR) model are focused.
The VAR coefficients are used for the selection of the data and the past wind speed data which have high VAR coefficients are input to the neural network. The proposed method is confirmed that combination of the above idea is effective. Specifically, the wind speed prediction error (average absolute value error) , one hour ahead in the Tohoku region is 1m/s that is close to the target.
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