• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Study on macroeconomic policy based on nostationary and nonlinear modelling

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26380271
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic statistics
Research InstitutionKyushu University

Principal Investigator

Takimoto Taro  九州大学, 経済学研究院, 教授 (70403996)

Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords因果性測度 / VARMAモデル / 周波数領域 / 因果性 / 非線形モデル / 準ニュートン法
Outline of Final Research Achievements

When it is possible to test the strength of causal measures in the frequency domain among economic variables, we will be able to receive more sophisticated policy implications than through Granger causal analysis in the time domain. The project developed a new practical algorithm for estimation and testing of frequency-wise partial causal measures and applied to U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series data. Furthermore, applying non-stationary and nonlinear models to Japan’s fiscal time series data, we observed significant causal relationships among expenditures and political variables.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

因果性の有無だけでなくその強さと方向に加え第三系列による歪みを考慮できる偏因果性測度について,具体的に推定可能なアルゴリズムの開発を行い,モンテカルロ・シミュレーションにより,サンプルサイズが推定結果に与える影響を分析した.また,アメリカのマクロ経済・金融データを用いて経済成長率の予測可能性についての検証を行い,1980年代半ばを境に因果関係が変化していることを確認した.また,日本の財政データについて,長期均衡関係における非対称を考慮した非定常・非線形モデルにより,内閣支持率から支出変数への,社会保障費については,内閣支持率との間に双方向のGranger因果性が存在することが確認された.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Other

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 3 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 3 results) Presentation (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Nonlinear dynamics in Japan’s financial returns volatility: A Markov-switching GARCH approach2015

    • Author(s)
      Dahiru A. Bala and Taro Takimoto
    • Journal Title

      Studies in Applied Economics(応用経済学研究)

      Volume: 9 Pages: 26-60

    • NAID

      40020781144

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Tax, spend, and democracy indices in Japan2015

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Sakamoto and Taro Takimoto
    • Journal Title

      Yamagata University FLSS Discussion Paper No. 2015-E01

      Volume: E01 Pages: 1-49

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Japan’s revenue-expenditure nexus2014

    • Author(s)
      Takimoto and Sakamoto
    • Journal Title

      Faculty of Economics Kyushu University Discussion Paper No. 2014-3

      Volume: 3 Pages: 1-46

    • NAID

      40020159508

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Tax, spend, and political support rates in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      坂本直樹,瀧本太郎
    • Organizer
      日本応用経済学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Measures of time-series interdependence: Evidence in US macroeconomic data2018

    • Author(s)
      瀧本太郎,細谷雄三
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Measures of time-series interdependence2018

    • Author(s)
      Hosoya and Takimoto
    • Organizer
      Kagawa International Symposium “Recent Developments in Statistics and Econometrics”
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Measuring time-series interdependencies2016

    • Author(s)
      Yuzo Hosoya and Taro Takimoto
    • Organizer
      Recent Progress in Time Series Analysis: conference in honor of Prof. Hosoya
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学(宮城県仙台市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-02
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Time series partial causality: Computational and empirical analyses2015

    • Author(s)
      Taro Takimoto and Yuzo Hosoya
    • Organizer
      Recent Progress in Time Series and Related Fields conference in honor of Prof. Yajima for his long time contributions in time series analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学(宮城県仙台市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-11
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Characterizing independencies of the vector ARMA process2015

    • Author(s)
      細谷雄三・瀧本太郎
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      上智大学(東京都千代田区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Have intergovernmental transfers stimulated expenditures in Japan’s local government?2015

    • Author(s)
      Taro Takimoto and Naoki Sakamoto
    • Organizer
      Singapore Economic Review Conference 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      Mandarin Orchard Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] Characterizing Interdependencies of Multiple Time Series: Theory and Applications2017

    • Author(s)
      Hosoya, Oya, Takimoto, and Kinoshita
    • Total Pages
      133
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9789811064364
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 九州大学研究者情報

    • URL

      http://hyoka.ofc.kyushu-u.ac.jp/search/details/K002710/index.html

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2020-03-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi