| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We analyzed the characteristics of the ESP forecast survey, which is the first monthly survey of macroeconomic forecasts conducted by professional forecasters in Japan and created new leading indicators for the Japanese economy.
Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between the forecast horizon, the forecast accuracy, and the cross-sectional disagreement among forecasters. Utilizing these characteristics, we developed a new method of Nowcasting, forecasting the preliminary figures of GDP before its publication, and presented it at academic conference in Japan and abroad. In addition, we conducted a revision study of GDP statistics subject to prediction and the problems of estimation methods considered to be the cause, presented at domestic academic societies and published in research journals.
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