The distribution of exchange rate expectations

• Project/Area Number: 26380413
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Money/ Finance
• Research Institution: Kindai University
• Principal Investigator: HOSHIKAWA Takeshi 近畿大学, 経済学部, 教授 (20467674)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
• Keywords: 為替相場 / 国際金融 / 国際資本移動 / 外国為替市場介入 / 為替介入

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project analyzed exchange rate fluctuations and the formation of market forecasts. We newly defined what price fluctuation is normal and what price fluctuation is not normal, and considered how it is better to predict fluctuations in exchange rates. This study also analyzed foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate rebound.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

為替相場などの経済変数は将来の見通しや楽観・悲観といった人々がどのように考えているか、どう行動するかによって変動する側面がある。人々の予想は非常に不安定で移ろいやすい。この点が自然科学と異なり、データが豊富にあったとしても分析が難しい点である。経済の動きを理解しようとした場合、人々がどのように予想するかは重要な問題であり、予想の在り方によって現在の行動が変わってくることになる。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Global Financial Crisis and Demand for the Dollar as an International Currency. (2018)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, T. and Inagaki, K.
  • Journal Title: mimeo Volume: 0 Pages: 1-16
• [Journal Article] The demand for bonds with negative nominal interest rate: capital gain approach (2018)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, Takeshi
  • Journal Title: 近畿大学経済学部 Working Paper Series Volume: No.E-42 Pages: 1-5
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Questionnaire Survey of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises on Foreign Exchange Intervention Effects (2018)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, Takeshi
  • Journal Title: 近畿大学経済学部 Working Paper Series Volume: No.E-41 Pages: 1-23
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Exchange Rate Rebounds after Foreign Exchange Market Interventions (2017)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, Takeshi
  • Journal Title: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Volume: 469 Pages: 102-110
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.11.044
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] マイナス金利に関する経済分析 (2016)
  • Author(s): 星河武志
  • Journal Title: 大銀協フォーラム研究助成論文集 Volume: 20 Pages: 1-14
• [Presentation] Factors Causing Capital Flows in Emerging Economies. (2017)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, Takeshi and Masahiro Inoguchi.
  • Organizer: Western Economic Association International, 92nd Annual Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 株式および外国為替相場の適正な価格変動からの乖離について. (2017)
  • Author(s): 星河武志
  • Organizer: 名古屋市立大学経済学研究科火曜研究会
• [Presentation] Demand for the dollar as an international currency (2017)
  • Author(s): 星河武志・稲垣一之
  • Organizer: 第14回 Modern Monetary Economics Summer Institute、神戸大学
• [Presentation] Estimating asset price bubbles: volatility approach (2017)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, Takeshi
  • Organizer: 日本国際経済学会関西支部定例研究会（2016年度第5回）
  • Place of Presentation: 関西学院大学大阪梅田キャンパス
• [Presentation] Exchange Rate Rebounds after Foreign Exchange Market Interventions (2016)
  • Author(s): Hoshikawa, Takeshi
  • Organizer: Western Economic Association International, 91st Annual Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Oregon.
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Factors causing capital flows in emerging economies (2014)
  • Author(s): 星河武志、猪口真大
  • Organizer: 日本金融学会、2014年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 山口大学
  • Year and Date: 2014-10-18