| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study developed a benefit estimation model that considers travel time reliability. The model is based on a network model that is formulated as a utility maximization problem with constraints. Since this utility maximization problem has the same equilibrium conditions as a multi-class user equilibrium traffic assignment problem with elastic demand, both transport demand forecasting and benefit estimation can be carried out in the same framework. By assuming a certain form for the utility function, the road network model can estimate the prohibitive price, so the proposed method is convenient for estimating opportunity loss due to disruption of origin-destination connection in the event of a natural disaster. Furthermore, the values of travel time and travel time reliability are estimated endogenously in the proposed method; thus, changes in these values can be reflected in the benefit estimation. A numerical experiment demonstrates the method presented in this study.
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