| Project/Area Number |
26420631
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Town planning/Architectural planning
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| Research Institution | Kwansei Gakuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
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| Keywords | 都市化 / ヒートアイランド / GIS / 土地利用変化 / ベイズモデル / MCMC / 条件付き空間的自己回帰モデル / 階層ベイズモデル / ＧＩＳ / ランダム効果 / 成熟社会 / 空間統計モデル開発 / 地理データ / 社会統計データ / 空間統計情報 / 空間的自己相関モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A mathematical model that predicts land use change in depopulating cities is proposed by use of the spatial model enhanced by Bayesian statistical model. The model is a modified form of the intrinsic Gaussian CAR model with Bayesian scheme, and considers intensities of effects of urbanization in surrounding areas as random variables in a stochastic way. In the model the intensities of the effects are regarded to vary randomly depending on their places but, on the other hand, controlled by the precision value of the prior distribution. It enables us to estimate not only the intensities of the effect but also effects of other important factors more accurately than the ordinal regression model.
Furthermore, future land use changes are simulated by using this model and parameters obtained from the preceding calculations, and possible future rises of temperature caused by the spread of urbanizations are estimated.
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