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Do local land use changes give effect to the urban climate for a long period?

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26420631
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Town planning/Architectural planning
Research InstitutionKwansei Gakuin University

Principal Investigator

KYAKUNO TAKASHI  関西学院大学, 総合政策学部, 教授 (80322725)

Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Keywords都市化 / ヒートアイランド / GIS / 土地利用変化 / ベイズモデル / MCMC / 条件付き空間的自己回帰モデル / 階層ベイズモデル / GIS / ランダム効果 / 成熟社会 / 空間統計モデル開発 / 地理データ / 社会統計データ / 空間統計情報 / 空間的自己相関モデル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

A mathematical model that predicts land use change in depopulating cities is proposed by use of the spatial model enhanced by Bayesian statistical model. The model is a modified form of the intrinsic Gaussian CAR model with Bayesian scheme, and considers intensities of effects of urbanization in surrounding areas as random variables in a stochastic way. In the model the intensities of the effects are regarded to vary randomly depending on their places but, on the other hand, controlled by the precision value of the prior distribution. It enables us to estimate not only the intensities of the effect but also effects of other important factors more accurately than the ordinal regression model.
Furthermore, future land use changes are simulated by using this model and parameters obtained from the preceding calculations, and possible future rises of temperature caused by the spread of urbanizations are estimated.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Products Report
  • Research Products

    (3 results)

All 2020 2018 2016

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Prediction of land use changes with Bayesian spatial modeling from the perspective of urban climate2020

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kyakuno
    • Journal Title

      Urban Climate (Elsevier)

      Volume: 31 Pages: 100569-100569

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100569

    • Related Report
      Products Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Methodology for Evaluating Influences of Anthropogenic Factors on Temperature Formation of Summer Seasons Considering their Randomness<br>-Verification Through the Hierarchical Bayesian Model-2016

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kyakuno
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering

      Volume: 15 Issue: 3 Pages: 643-650

    • DOI

      10.3130/jaabe.15.643

    • NAID

      130005414911

    • ISSN
      1346-7581, 1347-2852
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Prediction of land use changes with Bayesian Spatial Modeling for the perspective of urban climate2018

    • Author(s)
      Takashi KYAKUNO
    • Organizer
      10th International Conference on Urban Climate/14th Symposium on the Urban Environment, American Meteorological Society
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

URL: 

Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2021-07-06  

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