Ex-post Evaluation of the Effects of Tariff Reduction on Agricultural Trade Under the FTA/EPA Movement

• Project/Area Number: 26450307
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Agricultural science in management and economy
• Research Institution: Chiba University
• Principal Investigator: Kobayashi Hiroaki 千葉大学, 大学院園芸学研究科, 教授 (70329019)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 丸山 敦史 千葉大学, 大学院園芸学研究科, 准教授 (90292672) ; 石田 貴士 千葉大学, 大学院園芸学研究科, 助教 (30623467)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
• Keywords: 国際食料経済 / 農産品貿易 / 地域貿易協定 / 国際食料経済・貿易 / 経済連携協定 / 貿易転換・創出効果 / 特恵関税 / 事後評価分析 / 時系列分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The study investigates the trend in selected agricultural commodities under the movement of Japan’s EPAs. Time series analyses using ADF tests suggest that the reduction of tariffs hardly brought about trade creation except in the case of shrimp where the export from the partner countries in the EPAs had virtually occupied the Japanese market. This evidence may support the classical framework by Viner rather than that of the GTAP model, while the estimation results are not clear-cut. We should take into account the fact that opening of the Japanese markets in agricultural products are still moderate in spite of the consecutive implementation of EPAs as of 2016. The cases of Thailand and LAO PDR under the ASEAN AEC was aloso investigated. The study results were presented in some academic meetings.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives(Thailand)
• [Journal Article] タイの都市部を中心とするコメの消費者選好―販売方法と生産者表示に着目して― (2018)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明・石田貴士・丸山敦史
  • Journal Title: 食と緑の科学 Volume: 72 Pages: 61-70
  • NAID: 120006477563
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The Impact of Regulating Bluefin Tuna Exports on the Japanese Tuna Market (2015)
  • Author(s): Takashi Ishida
  • Journal Title: Journal of Food Research Volume: 4 Pages: 103-109
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Effects of Government Support on Rice Farming in Contemporary Thailand: A Simulation Analysis (2015)
  • Author(s): Hiroaki Kobayashi, Pongthai Thaiyotin, Takashi Ishida, Sotaro Inoue
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Rural Economics Volume: 18 Pages: 39-44
  • NAID: 130007041841
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] 国際比較からみるわが国の農業保護 (2015)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明
  • Journal Title: 農業および園芸 Volume: 90 Pages: 787-788
• [Presentation] ラオス・ビエンチャン近郊におけるコメのバリューチェーンと消費者選好―タイトの比較を交えて― (2018)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明・石田貴士・丸山敦史・ 井上荘太朗・ 瀬尾充
  • Organizer: アジア市場経済学会東部部会研究会
• [Presentation] わが国EPAによる影響の事後評価分析－貿易転換効果と貿易創出効果－ (2016)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明、丸山敦史、石田貴士
  • Organizer: 日本フードシステム学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京海洋大学（東京都港区）
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-19
• [Presentation] タクシン政権以降におけるタイのコメ政策の展開と評価 (2016)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明
  • Organizer: アジア市場経済学会
  • Place of Presentation: 専修大学（東京都千代田区）
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-14
• [Presentation] Effects of price support policies on income distribution in Thai rice farming (2015)
  • Author(s): Hiroaki Kobayashi, Pongthai Taiyotin, Takashi Ishida, Sotaro Inoue
  • Organizer: 日本農業経済学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京農工大学
  • Year and Date: 2015-03-29
• [Presentation] 為替変動下のわが国農産物輸出の動向 (2014)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明
  • Organizer: 日本フードシステム学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学
  • Year and Date: 2014-06-15
• [Book] 「グローバリゼーションとフードシステムー学会における研究動向と展開方向」（斎藤修監修『日本フードシステム学期の活動と展望』 (2016)
  • Author(s): 下渡敏治・小林弘明
  • Total Pages: 282
  • Publisher: 農林統計出版
• [Book] グローバル化と食品企業行動（フードシステム学叢書第3巻) (2014)
  • Author(s): 下渡敏治・小林弘明編著、その他13名
  • Total Pages: 211
  • Publisher: 農林統計出版
• [Book] 「わが国フードシステムをめぐる経済環境」『グローバル化と食品企業行動』の第5章 (2014)
  • Author(s): 小林弘明
  • Total Pages: 13
  • Publisher: 農林統計出版