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Future Projection of Regional Flood Risk by Using Probabilistic Flood Envelope Curves

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26450344
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Rural environmental engineering/Planning
Research InstitutionOkayama University

Principal Investigator

Chikamori Hidetaka  岡山大学, 環境生命科学研究科, 教授 (40217229)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 永井 明博  岡山大学, 環境生命科学研究科, 教授 (80093285)
Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Keywords洪水比流量曲線 / DAD関係 / 確率流量 / 既往最大面積雨量 / 既往最大洪水比流量 / クリーガー式 / 角屋・永井による式 / 洪水危険度 / 気候変動 / 確率年 / DAD式
Outline of Final Research Achievements

An implicit flood envelope curve (FEC) equation was derived as a solution to a system of a 6-parameter depth-area-duration (DAD) equation, a time of concentration formula and the rational formula. The FEC equation was respectively applied to present and future probabilistic specific discharge in six river basins in Japan. The comparison of present and future FECs shows different characteristics of change in probabilistic flood discharge especially by basin area. In addition, flood envelope curves were derived from DAD relations in record maximum areal rainfall data for each of 15 regions in Japan, and the estimated peak specific discharge from the DAD relation exceeded the estimated by conventional flood envelope curves as Creager’s and Kadoya’s in some of the regions including the South Hokkaido area.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (2 results)

All 2015 2014

All Presentation (2 results)

  • [Presentation] 6定数型DAD式に基づく洪水比流量曲線式による確率洪水比流量の将来変化予測2015

    • Author(s)
      近森秀高
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2015年度研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-09
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 瀬戸内地域における確率洪水比流量の将来変化予測2014

    • Author(s)
      近森秀高
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2014年度研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      宮崎市
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2018-03-22  

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