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Development of a prediction model for the individualization of preventive health and administrative services by foresee the senior stage from the presenior stage

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26520105
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section特設分野
Research Field Neo-Gerontology
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Kawamura Takashi  京都大学, 環境安全保健機構, 教授 (10252230)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 若井 建志  名古屋大学, 医学系研究科, 教授 (50270989)
玉腰 暁子  北海道大学, 医学研究院, 教授 (90236737)
Research Collaborator Okabayashi Satoe  
Project Period (FY) 2014-07-18 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords予測モデル / 高齢者 / 死亡 / 要介護状態 / 独身状態 / 健康診断 / 独身 / 地域コホート研究 / well-being / 要介護
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In an suburban city in Japan, we had provided the integrated health checkups for the inhabitants aged 64 years, and obtained their outcomes, i.e., death and dependent status, following for 11 years. After picking up the potential predictors by simple logistic regression, we established the prediction modes selecting the predictors by multivariable logistic regression. In this analysis, we elucidated that unmarried status was a strong predictor. The discrimination performance was 0.763 for females and 0.735 for males. The internal validity tested by the bootstrap method was rather well.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究により、高齢期の入口に立つ個々の住民に対して医療や行政支援の必要性を見積もり、高齢者本人やその家族にとっての将来設計、また政策立案者、保健医療行政担当者、臨床医らの医療や支援の立案に役立つことが期待される。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Lifestyle and psychosocial factors and a decline in competence in daily living among Japanese early elderly people: from an age-specified community-based cohort study (NISSIN project)2019

    • Author(s)
      Okabayashi S, Kawamura T, et al.
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine

      Volume: in press

    • NAID

      210000155911

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The associations of dietary patterns with all-cause mortality and other lifestyle factors in the elderly: an age-specific prospective cohort study2019

    • Author(s)
      Zhao W, Ukawa S, Kawamura T, et al.
    • Journal Title

      Clinical Nutrion

      Volume: 38 Issue: 1 Pages: 288-296

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.clnu.2018.01.018

    • NAID

      120006783667

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 地域における臨床研究のすすめ2017

    • Author(s)
      小林大介、川村 孝
    • Journal Title

      月刊地域医学

      Volume: 31 Pages: 778-781

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Diabetes Mellitus is Associated With Low Secretion Rates of Immunoglobulin A in Saliva2015

    • Author(s)
      1.Oikawa J, Ukawa S, Ohira H, Kawamura T, Wakai K, Ando M, Hata A, and Tamakoshi A
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 25 Issue: 7 Pages: 470-474

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20140088

    • NAID

      130005086222

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Association of gait speed with mortality among the Japanese elderly in the New Integrated Suburban Seniority Investigation Project: a prospective cohort study.2015

    • Author(s)
      Zhao W, Ukawa S, Tsushita K, Kawamura T, Wakai K, Ando M, Tamakoshi A
    • Journal Title

      Age and Ageing

      Volume: 44 Issue: 1 Pages: 153-157

    • DOI

      10.1093/ageing/afu121

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Diabetes mellitus is associated with low secretion rates of immunoglobulin A in saliva2015

    • Author(s)
      Oikawa J, Ukawa S, Ohira H, Kawamura T, Wakai K, Ando M, Hata A, Tamakoshi A
    • Journal Title

      J Epidemiol

      Volume: 未定

    • NAID

      130005086222

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Association between falls and depressive symptoms or visual impairment among Japanese young-old adults2015

    • Author(s)
      Kojima R, Ukawa S, Ando M, Kawamura T, Wakai K, Tsushita M, Tamakoshi A
    • Journal Title

      Geriatr Gerontol Int

      Volume: 未定 Issue: 3 Pages: 384-391

    • DOI

      10.1111/ggi.12487

    • NAID

      120005981353

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 臨床研究における疫学の手法2018

    • Author(s)
      川村 孝
    • Organizer
      第37回日本社会精神医学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] H. Factors associated with the decline in competence of daily living among Japanese early-elderly: findings from the NISSIN prospective cohort study2016

    • Author(s)
      Okabayashi S, Kawamura T, Tamakoshi A, Ukawa S, Wakai K, Ando M, Tsushita K, Ohira
    • Organizer
      48th Asia-Pacific Consortium for Public Health Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Teikyo Univ, Itabashi, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-16
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 高齢への入口時点におけるその後のwell-beingの決定要因:特定年齢コホートにおける軽度認知機能低下に関する検討2014

    • Author(s)
      岡林里枝
    • Organizer
      第50回日本循環器病予防学会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都市勧業館
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-20
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 臨床研究の教科書:研究デザインとデータ処理のポイント2016

    • Author(s)
      川村 孝
    • Total Pages
      239
    • Publisher
      医学書院
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2014-09-09   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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