Post evaluation of future projection
| Project/Area Number |
26550114
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Environmental policy and social systems
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| Research Institution | J. F. Oberlin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
金子 慎治 広島大学, 国際協力研究科, 教授 (00346529)
藤倉 良 法政大学, 人間環境学部, 教授 (10274482)
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| Research Collaborator |
LERNER Michael
SASAKI Daisuke
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | 将来予測 / 成長の限界 / 西暦２０００年の地球 / 中国 / ＧＤＰ / 指標 / 西暦2000年の地球 / 米国 / 環境政策 / ＥＵ / 環境政策過程 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study first assesses the influence of two reports, "The Limits to Growth" and "The Global 2000 Report to the President" on environmental governance in the United States. Published in 1972 and 1980, respectively, both reports reached similar conclusions: business-as-usual economic growth was unsustainable. Relying on eight oral interviews conducted with experienced and influential persons in the US, this analysis finds Limits and Global 2000 had a limited influence on U.S. environmental governance. The reports' projections remain largely valid, but decisionmakers have long dismissed them as irrelevant. This study then accesses projections of 47 indicators of China toward 2050 conducted by 60 experts in 1997 by comparing actual data up to 2015. While GDP has positive correlations with ratio of primary industries and urbanization, negative correlations with total fertility rate, irrigated farmland, and crop yield.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(1 results)
