Optimization research of immunization program using mathematical models

• Project/Area Number: 26670308
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: NISHIURA Hiroshi 東京大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (70432987)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 予防接種 / 感染症 / 数理モデル / 疫学 / 保健政策

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Immunization program in Japan has not necessarily been science based policy. The present study aimed to offer optimal policy decision toward a few difficult questions in improving immunization program through mathematical modeling approach. Routine immunization policy and rubella vaccination were specifically analyzed.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics. (2016)
  • Author(s): Kinoshita R, Nishiura H.
  • Journal Title: BMJ Open. Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Pages: e009928-e009928
  • DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009928
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Investigating the immunizing effect of the rubella epidemic in Japan, 2012-14. (2015)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K.
  • Journal Title: Int J Infect Dis. Volume: 38 Pages: 16-18
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.07.006
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 予防接種が「効く」ことの数理 (2014)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Journal Title: 数学セミナー Volume: 53(6) Pages: 72-78
  • Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] 日本の風疹大流行を解剖する (2014)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Journal Title: 数学セミナー Volume: 53(8) Pages: 80-86
• [Journal Article] 予防接種評価の落とし穴：疫学的干渉 (2014)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Journal Title: 数学セミナー Volume: 53(10) Pages: 72-78
• [Presentation] A seroepidemiological assessment towards herd immunity attainment of rubella in Japan (2016)
  • Author(s): Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Conference on Mathematical Modeling and Control of Communicable Diseases, Fundacao Getulio Vargas
  • Place of Presentation: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  • Year and Date: 2016-01-11
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A seroepidemiological assessment of susceptible population against rubella in Japan (2015)
  • Author(s): Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Epidemics 5, Hilton Clearwater Beach, Florida
  • Place of Presentation: Florida, USA
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-03
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Mathematical epidemiology of the rubella epidemic in Japan, oral (2015)
  • Author(s): Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Theory of Biomathematics and Its Applications XII, Kyoto Univerisity
  • Place of Presentation: Kyoto University （京都府，京都市）
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-24
• [Presentation] Estimating the reproduction numbers of emerging infectious diseases: Case studies of Ebola and dengue. (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H
  • Organizer: 東京大学大学院数理科学研究科談話会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-30
• [Presentation] Detecting an evolution of the reproduction number during the course of an epidemic. (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H
  • Organizer: Joint annual meeting of the Society for Mathematical Biology and Japanese Society for Mathematical Biology
  • Place of Presentation: 大阪
  • Year and Date: 2014-07-26
• [Presentation] Assessing test-and-vaccinate policy against rubella using an epidemic model. (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H, Ejima K
  • Organizer: American Institute of Mathematical Sciences
  • Place of Presentation: Madrid, Spain
  • Year and Date: 2014-07-14
• [Presentation] Probabilistic differential diagnosis of imported cases: A case study of MERS. (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H
  • Organizer: European Conference for Mathematical and Theoretical Biology
  • Place of Presentation: Gothenburg, Sweden
  • Year and Date: 2014-06-05
• [Presentation] Epidemiological interference and causal inference of vaccine. (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H
  • Organizer: Atlantic Causal Inference Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Rhode Island, USA
  • Year and Date: 2014-05-10
• [Book] 感染症数理モデルの実用化と産業及び政策での活用のための新たな展開 (2014)
  • Author(s): 西浦博（編）
  • Total Pages: 121
  • Publisher: 九州大学マスフォアインダストリ研究所