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Empirical Analysis Using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound Constraint on the Nominal Interest Rate

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26780124
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionKeio University

Principal Investigator

HIROSE Yasuo  慶應義塾大学, 経済学部(三田), 教授 (50583663)

Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywords動学的一般均衡(DSGE)モデル / 名目金利の非負制約 / 自然利子率 / 非線形モデル / ベイズ推定 / particle filter / マクロ経済学 / 金融政策 / DSGEモデル / ゼロ金利 / デフレーション
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project made two major academic contributions. First, I estimated a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese economy during the period from 1999 to 2013, when the Bank of Japan conducted a zero interest rate policy and the inflation rate was almost always negative, and revealed the characteristics of the economy during the period. Second, I found that the estimates of parameters and the natural interest rate in a DSGE model could be substantially biased if the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate was not taken into account in estimation.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Natural Rate of Interest in a Nonlinear DSGE Model2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose and Takeki Sunakawa
    • Journal Title

      CAMA Working Paper Series, , Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University

      Volume: 38/2017

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

      Volume: 49 Issue: 1 Pages: 171-185

    • DOI

      10.1111/jmcb.12378

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited2017

    • Author(s)
      Yauo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi, Willem Van Zandweghe
    • Journal Title

      Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Papers

      Volume: 17-1 Pages: 1-29

    • DOI

      10.18651/rwp2017-01

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] “The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model”2015

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose, *Atsuhi Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Applied Econometrics

      Volume: 25 FEB Issue: 4 Pages: 630-651

    • DOI

      10.1002/jae.2447

    • NAID

      120006314356

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      Annual Congress of the European Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Natural Rate of Interest in a Nonlinear DSGE Model2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      Summer Workshop on Economic Theory
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      Dynare Conference
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?2016

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      ボルドー(フランス)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?2016

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      ミラノ(イタリア)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-22
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?2015

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      NBER Workshop on Methods and Applications for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
    • Place of Presentation
      フィラデルフィア(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-17
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State2015

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      Dynare Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      ブリュッセル(ベルギー)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-28
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State2015

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      World Congress of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      モントリオール(カナダ)
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-20
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State2015

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      DSGE Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      台北(台湾)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-13
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State2014

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      Summer Workshop on Economic Theory
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌(北海道)
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-10
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State: An Application to the Japanese Economy2014

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      ロンドン(イギリス)
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State: An Application to the Japanese Economy2014

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      オスロ(ノルウェー)
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-22
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model2014

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      ニューヨーク(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-17
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 個人ホームページ

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/yasuohirose/

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 個人ホームページ

    • URL

      http://sites.google.com/site/yasuohirose/

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report 2015 Research-status Report 2014 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2022-06-07  

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