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Expectation and its effect on economic activity

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26780187
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionKyushu University

Principal Investigator

Kinari Yusuke  九州大学, 経済学研究院, 准教授 (10509855)

Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywords期待形成 / 期待バイアス / 楽観的期待 / 自信過剰 / 期待 / 意思決定 / 感情 / 経済実験 / 国際情報交換 / アンケート調査 / リスク態度
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study is to make it clear how we form our expectations, how our expectations deviate from rationality (expectation biases), and how our expectations and their biases affect our economic activities. The results show that the degree of pessimism and optimism of our expectation varies considerably over time, while those of overconfidence remained stable over time. Status quo bias seems to explain the results of this study well including results of previous studies. In addition, this study finds that our expectation and biases affect our decision between piece rate reward and competitive reward. Furthermore, experiments of this study suggest that our emotion could be a source of expectation biases.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (6 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Bloomberg/University of Michigan(米国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Stony Brook University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Properties of expectation biases: Optimism and overconfidence2016

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Kinari
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance

      Volume: 10 Pages: 32-49

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jbef.2016.02.003

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Older Sisters and Younger Brothers: The Impact of Siblings on Preference for Competition2015

    • Author(s)
      Hiroko Okudaira, Yusuke Kinari, Noriko Mizutani, Fumio Ohtake, Akira Kawaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Personality and Individual Differences

      Volume: 82 Pages: 81-89

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.paid.2015.02.037

    • NAID

      40022346091

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] 感情と意思決定2017

    • Author(s)
      木成勇介
    • Organizer
      行動経済学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Expectation2016

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Kinari
    • Organizer
      Applied Economics Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      九州大学(福岡県福岡市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Do Survey Expectations Reflect Risk Aversion?2015

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Kinari, Noah Smith
    • Organizer
      CBPE (Center for Behavioral Political Economy) seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      Stony Brook University
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Happiness Before and After an Election: An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey around Japan’s 2009 Election2014

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiro Tsutsui, Yusuke Kinari, Fumio Ohtake, Miles Kimball, Shoko Morimoto
    • Organizer
      行動経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應義塾大学(東京都港区)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-06
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Income, giving, and egalitarianism: a real-effort experiment in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      Tomoharu Mori, Noriko Mizutani, Yusuke Kinari, Fumio Ohtake
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      西南学院大学(福岡県福岡市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-12
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Income, giving, and egalitarianism: a real-effort experiment in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      Tomoharu Mori, Noriko Mizutani, Yusuke Kinari, Fumio Ohtake
    • Organizer
      2014 International Meetings of the Economic Science Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Honolulu (Hawaii)
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2022-02-16  

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