| Project/Area Number |
26780242
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Commerce
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| Research Institution | Nihon University |
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Principal Investigator |
BAN Masataka 日本大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (50507754)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | 新製品普及 / 製品ライフサイクル / ID-POS / ハザードモデル / 売上予測 / 新製品 / ブランド選択 / マーケティング |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of this study is to construct a model for sales forecasting of new consumer nondurable goods, and then to find an appropriate diffusion strategy by using simulation method in terms of the concept of product life cycle management. More specifically, proposed model which is a consumer level diffusion model is constructed of three parts. That is, new product adoption hazard model, brand choice model, and purchase timing hazard model.
The empirical results using ID-POS data with weekly TV advertising exposures per household implies that TV advertising stock variable formed from exposure data expedites timing of new product adoption and category purchase, but it does not have any effectiveness at the point of brand choice. Then, using the bayesian predictive distribution, new product sales forecasting and diffusion curve estimation are done.
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