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Toward understanding decadal modulation of global warming tendency by climate prediction and data assimilation

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26800253
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

MOCHIZUKI Takashi  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 気候変動リスク情報創生プロジェクトチーム, 主任研究員 (00450776)

Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywords気候予測 / 気候モデリング / データ同化 / 大気海洋相互作用 / 地球温暖化 / 大洋間相互作用 / 太平洋十年規模振動 / 大西洋数十年規模振動 / 太平洋十年振動 / エルニーニョ現象
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Subdecadal modulation of rising trend in the upper ocean heat content is observed over the tropical Pacific in 2000s, in a different manner from other decades. Dynamical ocean response to the strong subdecadal modulation in the Pacific trade wind works to keep warm and cold tendencies in the western and eastern Pacific Oceans, respectively, and consequently it can contribute to slowdown of global warming. Our decadal hindcasts with initialization insufficiently reproduce the subdecadal modulation even a few years in advance, particularly due to low skill in hindcasting the strong trade wind observed in mid-2000s. Sensitivity experiments of a coupled climate model suggest that the strong trade wind can be largely contributed by high sea surface temperature over the tropical Atlantic Ocean in relation to the positive peak of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (19 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results) Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 6 results)

  • [Journal Article] Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation2016

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., S. Masuda, Y. Ishikawa, T. Awaji
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 43 Issue: 8 Pages: 3903-3910

    • DOI

      10.1002/2016gl067895

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Interbasin effect of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific decadal climate change2016

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, Y. Chikamoto, and M. Ishii
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett.

      Volume: 43 Issue: 13 Pages: 7168-7175

    • DOI

      10.1002/2016gl069940

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 気候モデルの部分同化実験による大洋間相互作用研究2016

    • Author(s)
      望月崇
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋

      Volume: 48 Pages: 220-226

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Interbasin connection of multiyear climate changes relevant to global warming hiatus2017

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      8th OFES International Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学、愛知県名古屋市
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-13
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Inter-basin influence of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific decadal climate change2016

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, Y. Chikamoto, M. Ishii
    • Organizer
      CLIVAR Open Science Conference 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Hyatt Regency Qingdao, Qingdao, China
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-21
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 今世紀初めの10年規模気候変動とその予測の再考2016

    • Author(s)
      望月崇、木本昌秀、渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      鹿児島大学、鹿児島県鹿児島市
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-14
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 10年規模の熱帯気候変動における大洋間結合プロセス2016

    • Author(s)
      望月崇、近本喜光、木本昌秀、渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      研究集会「続・地球温暖化ハイエイタスと潜在的ブーストに対する海洋熱循環の役割」
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学、北海道札幌市
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-05
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Inter-basin climate variation studies by employing partial data assimilation approach2016

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T.
    • Organizer
      Joint US-Japan Workshop on Climate Change and Variability
    • Place of Presentation
      Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Uncertainty estimation of climate prediction toward CMIP6 and IPCC-AR62015

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T.
    • Organizer
      North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) 2015 Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Shangri-La Hotel, Qingdao, China
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-15
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 気候モデルの部分同化実験による大洋間相互作用研究2015

    • Author(s)
      望月崇、近本喜光、渡部雅浩、木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      東京大学大気海洋研究所附属国際沿岸海洋研究センター 共同利用研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      大槌町中央公民館, 岩手県上閉伊郡
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Inter-basin connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans2015

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T.
    • Organizer
      Tropical Precipitation System Workshop 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      JAMSTEC横浜研究所, 神奈川県横浜市
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-04
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) for CMIP6 and IPCC-AR62015

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T.
    • Organizer
      Strategic Initiative on Climate Change effects on Marine Ecosystems international workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Talaris Conference Center, Seattle, USA
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-11
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Possible influence of the Indian Ocean on decadal changes of the Pacific climate2015

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2015年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ国際会議場, 千葉県千葉市
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-27
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Decadal Climate Prediction Project for CMIP6 and IPCC-AR62014

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T.
    • Organizer
      PICES Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Yeosu, Korea
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-16
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 近未来気候変動予測への最近の取り組み2014

    • Author(s)
      望月崇
    • Organizer
      東京大学大気海洋研究所国際沿岸海洋研究センター研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学大気海洋研究所国際沿岸海洋研究センター, 岩手県上閉伊郡
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 大気海洋結合同化 中長期気候変動研究への適用・応用例2014

    • Author(s)
      望月崇
    • Organizer
      第18回データ同化夏の学校
    • Place of Presentation
      海洋研究開発機構むつ研究所, 青森県むつ市
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Decadal climate prediction using 4D-VAR data assimilation approach2014

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., S. Masuda, Y. Ishikawa, T. Awaji
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 11th Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      ロイトンホテル, 北海道札幌市
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-31
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Decadal climate prediction using 4D-VAR data assimilation approach2014

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, T., Y. Ishikawa, S. Masuda, T. Awaji
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      パシフィコ横浜, 神奈川県横浜市
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-29
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Regional information in decadal climate prediction2014

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki T., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      2014 FUTURE Open Science Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Big Island, Hawaii, USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-15
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2018-03-22  

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