Development of Bayesian space-time models in stochastic forecast methods for recurrent earthquakes
| Project/Area Number |
26870193
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Research Field |
Solid earth and planetary physics
Statistical science
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Tokyo Institute of Technology |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
|
|---|
| Research Collaborator |
UCHIDA Naoki 東北大学, 理学研究科, 准教授 (80374908)
OGATA Yosihiko 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 名誉教授 (70000213)
MATSU'URA Mitsuhiro 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 外来研究員 (00114645)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | 繰り返し地震 / 地震予測 / 更新過程 / ベイズ予測 / ガウス過程事前分布 / 時空間モデル / プレートテクトニクス / 東日本大震災 / プレート沈み込み速度推定 / 東日本太平洋沖 / スロースリップ / 前震活動 / ロジスティック回帰 / 2016年熊本地震 / 繰り返し地震群 / 局所不連続スプライン / 内陸活断層地震 / 長期地震予測 / マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法 / 繰り返し地震予測 / 内陸活断層地震の長期予測 / 時空間点過程 / Brownian Passage Time分布 / 長期的スロースリップの時空間的変動 / 国際情報交換 / アメリカ |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
There are many active faults in inland Japan that have risks of future catastrophic earthquakes. Since inland active faults in Japan have very long cycles of activity, forecasting is difficult because of the scarcity and unreliability of historical data. For stability of predictive performance, we established Bayesian prediction methods to deal with the uncertainty of data and parameters caused by these problems.
Small repeating earthquakes are also useful for monitoring interplate slip because their recurrence times reflect the quasi-static slip rate on plate interfaces. Here, we developed a space-time model extended from a renewal process to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of slip rate on plate boundaries.
|
Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(31 results)
