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Study of Future Medical Manpower

Research Project

Project/Area Number 59370050
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field 医学一般
Research InstitutionThe University of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

KIIKUNI Kenzo  The University of Tsukuba, Professor, 社会医学系, 教授 (10114068)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) HOSHINO Keiko  Institute of Hospital Administration, Senior Researcher, 研究員
都村 敦子  社会保障研究所, 研究員
TEZUKA Akira  Saitama University, Professor, 政策科学研究科, 教授 (70125889)
NISHIZONO Masahisa  Fukuoka University Medical School, Professor, 医学部, 教授 (30078787)
KAKETA Katsumi  Japan Medical Education Foundation, President, 理事長
TSUMURA Atsuko  Institute of Social Security, Senior Researcher
Project Period (FY) 1984 – 1986
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1986)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,500,000)
Fiscal Year 1986: ¥2,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1985: ¥2,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1984: ¥2,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000)
KeywordsFuture medical manpower / future trends of patients / future practice pattern / form of employment / 医師の所得
Research Abstract

Future medical manpower is a global issue. Many countries are struggling with rapid increase of manpower supply and simply could not find adequate financial resources to cope with.
We have examined various aspects in analyzing this difficult and uncertain issues of future medical manpower. Following aspects were examined : a)future trends of patients, b)future practice pattern, c)form of employment of physicians, d)future needed service e.g. geriatrics and psychiatry, e)regional differences and institutional differences, f)trend of physicians income.
Our findings show that future medical manpower depends on uncertainties of complex combination of above aspects. Forecast of needed physicians depends on institutional case-mix and hospitalization pattern of old age person, varies from 64,000 to 390,000 physicians in year 2000, while Ministry of Health and Welfare's supply estimate is 282,000 physicians.
Needed psychiatrists also show great variation. If U.S. date can be applied, we need additional 12,500 physicians in psychiatry.
We have to have reasonable flexibility in determining future medical manpower policies based on sound data-base of related health manpower.

Report

(1 results)
  • 1986 Final Research Report Summary

Research Products

(14 results)

All Other

All Publications (14 results)

  • [Publications] 紀伊國献三: 医学振興. 20. 2-5 (1984)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 紀伊國献三: 病院. 43. 952-956 (1984)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 西園昌久: 精神医学. 27. 4-5 (1985)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 紀伊國献三ほか: 病院管理. 21. 175-213 (1984)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 中村文子: 厚生の指票. 33. 9-21 (1986)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 懸田克躬: 医療87. 3. 68-69 (1987)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 星野桂子ほか: "明日の医療10巻21世紀の医療" 中央法規出版, 375 (1985)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 紀伊國献三: "21世紀へ向けての医学と医療" 日本評論社, 172 (1985)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] KIIKUNI, Kenzo: "Issues of rapid physician growth" Medical Education Development. 20. 2-5 (1984)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] KIIKUNI, Kenzo: "Problems after physicians' growth" Hospitals. 43. 952-956 (1984)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] NISHIZONO, Masahisa: "Doubling of psychiatrists" Jounal of Psychiatry. 27. 4-5 (1985)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] NAKAMURA, Fumiko: "Expectation for old-age health care" Indices of Health. 33. 9-21 (1986)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] KAKETA, Katsumi: "Medical Education in the era of physicians' surplus" Iryo-87. 3. 69-89 (1987)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] KIIKUNI, Kenzo: Nihon-Hyoron Sha. Medicine and Medical care for 21st century, 172 (1987)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1986 Final Research Report Summary

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Published: 1987-03-30   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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