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Trade Surpluses, the Exchange Rate, and Open Macroeconomic Policies Including the Expansion of Domestic Demand -- Theory and Empirical Studies

Research Project

Project/Area Number 61301073
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionThe Yokohama National University

Principal Investigator

ONITSUKA Yusuke  Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (00028052)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) HIRAYAMA Kenjiro  Department of Commerce, Kansai University, Associate Professor, 商学部, 助教授 (70165207)
KUDOH Kazuhisa  Institute of Social Science, University of Tsukuba, Associate Professor, 社会科学系, 助教授 (00083329)
AKIYAMA Taro  Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University, Associate Professor, 経済学部, 助教授 (40167854)
KANOH Satoru  Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University, Associate Professor, 経済学部, 助教授 (50114971)
YAMAMOTO Taku  Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University, Proffesor, 経済学部, 教授 (50104716)
深尾 京司  一橋大学, 経済研究所, 専任講師 (30173305)
Project Period (FY) 1986 – 1987
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1987)
Budget Amount *help
¥8,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1987: ¥3,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1986: ¥5,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000)
KeywordsMacroeconometric Model / Balance-of-Payments Imbalances / The Exchange Rate / Capital Mobility / Speculative Bubbles / Expectations Formation / Open Macroeconomic Policy / 解放マクロ政策 / マクロ計量経済モデル / 国際収支 / 国際金融 / 期待
Research Abstract

Our 2-year project had two main aims. One was to study the fundamental mechanisms of open macroeconomic issues such as the causes of trade imbalances, the effects of capital mobility, and the observed volatility of the exchange rate movements and prescribe proper policies which best stabilize the economy. The other aim was to construct a macroeconometric model so as to capture the actual impacts of these policies. In order to attain these aims, we had a number of meetings and heated discussions in the past two years.
Our macroeconometric model was so constructed as to be compact in size and yet it fits the actual behavior of the economy appropriately. This parsimonious principle led us to build, first, the CORE model which consists of about 30 equations, and to add a block of equations when a specific sector of the economy is of particular interest. Each sector is connected only through the CORE model. This turned out to work efficiently in the senses that the performances of the model showed no less satisfactory results of policy simulations than those of the standard large-scale econometric models and that the small-scale model allows for rather sophisticated econometric techniques that are sometimes essential from the requirement by the economic theory.
As for the individual research, most menbers shared the interests in the dominant roles played by the expectations formation in the foreign exchange markets.Sometimes, self-fulfilling expectations generate speculative bubbles and they may in turn generate huge capital flows and the balance-of-payments imbalances. Unfortunately, however, this aspect was not fully incorporated into our macroeconometric model. This provides us incentives and needs to update and improve our macroeconometric model in the near future.

Report

(2 results)
  • 1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • 1986 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (22 results)

All Other

All Publications (22 results)

  • [Publications] 鬼塚雄丞: 米国の経済構造-日米の経営収支不均衡問題との関連において(世界経済研究協会). 7-24 (1987)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 秋山太郎: エコノミア(横浜国立大学経済学会). 96. 24-32 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 浅子和美: エコノミア(横浜国立大学経済学会). 95. 16-25 (1987)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 加納 悟: Journal of American Statistical Assocuation. FORTHCOWING (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 工藤和久: Mimes. University of Tsukuba. (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 平山健二郎: Kausai University Revirw of Econoluics and Business. 16. 1-16 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 山本 拓: "経済の時系列分析" 創文社, 352 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 鬼塚雄丞,岩井克人氏との共編: "経済学の原点から" 東京大学出版会, (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Onituka, Yusuke: "Internaitonal Capital Mobility and the Development Stages of the Economy" In Y. Onitsuka and K. Iwai Eds., From the Origin of the Economics, Tokyo University Press.forthcoming (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Akiyama,Taro: "Speculative Bubbles in Asset Markets: A Survey" Economia (Journal of the Economic Society of the Yokohama National University). No. 96. 24-32 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kanoh, Satoru: "On the Reduction of the Width of Confidence Bands in Linear Regression" Journal of American Statistical Association. (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kudoh, Kazuhisa: "The International Capital Movements, Domestic Assets and the Current Account: A Two Sector Approach" mineo. University of Tsukuba. (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hirayama, Kenjiro: "Expected Inflation: An Empirical study" Kansai University Review of Economics and Business. 16. 1-16 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yamamoto, Taku: Time Series Analysis in Economics. Sobunsha, 352 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1987 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 鬼塚雄丞: 国際通貨に関する第6回日米会議で発表 主催 日本国際金融情報センター(日本)と国際経済研究所(IIE). (1987)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山本拓: 大阪大学経済学. 37. (1987)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山本拓,竹内恵行: 経済学論集. 52. 30-50 (1986)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 秋山太郎: エコノミア(横浜国立大学経済学会). 88. 39-49 (1986)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 深尾京司,刈屋武昭 他: 経済分析. 105. 1-75 (1986)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 平山健二郎: KSU Economic and Business Review. 13. 13-30 (1985)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 秋山太郎: "「貯蓄と日本経済」(内「日本の貯蓄・投資バランスと国際経済」P1〜52担当)" 貯蓄経済研究センター, 370 (1986)

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 深尾京司,刈屋武昭: "「合理的予想形成仮説によるインフレ・為替分析」" 有斐閣,

    • Related Report
      1986 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1987-03-31   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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