| Project/Area Number |
61490031
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
広領域
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| Research Institution | Nihon University |
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Principal Investigator |
KOBAYASHI Kazumasa Professor, Nihon University Population Research Institute, 人口研究所, 教授 (10167405)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KURODA Toshio Part-time Lecturer, College of Economics, Nihon University, 経済学部, 嘱託 (80102440)
OGAWA Naohiro Professor, College of Economics, Nihon University, 経済学部, 教授 (20139075)
NANJO Zenji Professor, Fukushima Medical College, 教授 (10045594)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1986 – 1988
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 1988)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1988: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1987: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1986: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
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| Keywords | life table / life expectancy / cohort mortality / generational life table / infant mortality / model life table / rational model / 将来寿命の予測 / 年齢別死亡率 / パラメタライズド・モデル / 角変換 / 標準生命表 / 出生コーホート / 死亡率パターン / 生命表生残率 / センサス生残率 / 国勢調査 / 登録出生数 / 人口学的利用 / 死亡パターン / 同時生命表 / 寿命水準 / 将来の年齢別死亡率の仮定設定 / スプライン補間法 / 【°!e】xから8xの算出法 |
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| Research Abstract |
The period 1971-79 was the longest in recent years as a period without an influenza outbreak. It was this period when, along with Iceland, Japan came to have the world longest life expectancy. Especially during 1974-79, Japan's life expectancy increased significantly and steadily. Compared with this rapid improvement, however, the rate of increase during the 1980s was considerably slower. These differences in the pattern of life expectancy changes seem to be due partly to longevity decreases in 1980 and 1983 in which influenza prevailed.
When we examine the age pattern and sex differentials of the mortality changes during the 1970s and the 1980s respectively, however, we see a complex mechanism that produced these changes. One way to untangle this complexity is to analyze these "period" mortality changes in terms of "cohort" mortality changes. Specifically, we first construct the complete life tables for males and females for the period 1891-1986 (96 years), and using the estimated proportions dying, we then construct the life tables for the birth cohorst 1816-1974. Based upon these cohort (generational) life tables, we analyze cohort mortality changes. Our findings are summarized that although the pace of improvement in life expectancy slowed down in the 1980s, many of the cohorts show the trend of stabilization or even recovery in their life expectancy in recent years. These trends of stabilization and recovery are significant for projection of the future changes in life expectancy. Furthermore, since decreases in infant mortality are the most influential component for improvement of life expectancy, we also construct the model life table during infancy with the relational model, indicating suefulness of the model for analyses of period changes in infant mortality. it is necessary to further accumulate detailed demographic avidence for projection of future life expectancy in Japan.
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