| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1987: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 1986: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
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| Research Abstract |
IN THE REPORT, WE SHALL TRY TO MAKE A WHOLESALE PRICE FORECAST MODEL IN ORDER TO CONTROL FORWARDING THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES. WE HAD USED THE PUBLISHED MONTHLY DATA UP TO THIS POINT. BUT THE PRICE FLUCTUATION OF THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES HAPPENS DAILY IN EACH WHOLESALES. SO,WE HAVE USED SOME DAILY DATA IN THIS REPORT THAT WE CAN OBTAIN FROM THE "PERISHABLE FOODS MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM" THE DAILY DATA IS VERY USERUL FOR MAKE CLEAR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE FLUCTUATION.
A SUMMARY OF THE RESULT IS SHOWN AS BELOW. IN THE FIRST PLACE, THE PRICE FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN THE URBAN WHOLESALE PRICE AND THE LOCAL WHOLESALE PRICE INTERACT EACH OTHER. ALSO,THE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE AN EFFECT AGAINST TO THE WHOLESALE PRICES. WE CAN GET SOME INFORMATIONS FROM THE RESULTS OF A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. THEY ARE A WEEKLY VARIATION AND A SHORT-RUN CYCLICAL FLUCTUATION. CONCERNING ABOUT A WEEKLY VARIATION, AT THE BIGINNING AND END OF WEEK, THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES DISTRIBUTION ARE ACTIVELY THAN WITHIN WEEK IN A WHOLESALE. ON THE OTHER HAND, A SHORT-RUN CYCLICAL PRICE FLUCTUATION HAS A ABOUT 1200AY PERIOD. ACORDINGLY, WE CAN MAKE THE ECONOMETRICS MODEL BY TAKE IN THOSE INFORMATIONS NOT EVERY ENOUGH. THE MODEL IS AS FOLLOW
WHOLESALE PRICF=( NEW SUPPLY VOLUMES, URBAN WHOLESALE PRICE OF THE DAY BEFORE, TREND, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEEKLY DUMMY, EVENT DUMMY, AND SO ON FACTORES)
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