Investigation of the solar influence on the ocean and the climate

• Project Area: Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction as Science and Social Infrastructure
• Project/Area Number: 16H01184
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Review Section: Science and Engineering
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: 黒田 友二 気象庁気象研究所, 気候研究部, 研究官 (80343888)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 海洋変動 / 太陽活動 / 対流圏成層圏結合 / 大気海洋相互作用 / 地球システムモデル

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本研究では観測された海洋および気象データと、計算機上で太陽黒点周期変動として想定される太陽放射等の変動で駆動した地球大気海洋の運動を模した精密なモデルによる数値実験から、太陽活動の海洋変動と気候への関係を明らかにすることを目的とする。その目的のため、平成29年度は下記の項目について研究を行った。
１、気象研で開発した地球システムモデルを用いて、850年から2000年までの過去再現実験を用い、そのうち11年周期変動が顕著である1700年から2000年までのデータを用いて太陽活動１１年周期変動に対応する気候への影響の解析を行った。この数値実験では、観測から推定される太陽放射のスペクトル強度の変化に加えて、軌道要素や火山噴火に伴うエアロソル量や温室効果ガス濃度を時間の関数としてモデルに入れて積分を行うことで過去を再現するランとなっている。太陽活動１１年周期変動に対する応答の解析は全放射強度の１１年周期変動に対する回帰として計算した。その結果、東西平均東西風の変動については観測と同様に上部成層圏から対流圏へと極夜ジェット振動（PJO）のような形で降りてくる変動が見いだされた。但し、西風偏差が下りて北大西洋域に正の北大西洋振動が形成されるタイミングは、最近の観測でみられるような太陽活動のピークあたりではなく、むしろ太陽活動の極小期に近いタイミングであった。太平洋域でも同じく太陽活動の極小期に近いタイミングでアメリカ西方北太平洋域で正極となるPNA的な信号が現れた。また、熱帯太平洋では、信号は弱いものの、太陽活動のピークから遅れる形でラニーニャ的変動が現れた。
２、太陽活動の影響は成層圏極渦の変調を通して、北大西洋の海洋循環を変調し北大西洋変動に遅延した影響を与えることの他に、熱帯域ではエルニーニョ・南方振動との相互作用を通じ非線形な応答が生じる可能性を示した。

Research Progress Status

29年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

29年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] GEOMAR(ドイツ)
• [Journal Article] On the origin of the solar cycle modulation of the Southern Annular Mode (2018)
  • Author(s): Kuroda Y.
  • Journal Title: J. Geophy. Res. Volume: 123 Issue: 4 Pages: 1959-1969
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jd027091
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Simple Multivariable Maximum Covariance Analysis Method (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y., and K. Kodera,
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II Volume: 95 Issue: 3 Pages: 171-180
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2017-009
  • NAID: 130005626479
  • ISSN: 0026-1165, 2186-9057
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Dynamics and predictability of downward-propagating stratospheric planetary waves observed in March 2007 (2017)
  • Author(s): Mukougawa H., S. Notuchi, Y. Kuroda, R. Mizuta, and K. Kodera
  • Journal Title: J. Atmos. Sci. Volume: 74 Issue: 11 Pages: 3533-3550
  • DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-16-0330.1
  • NAID: 120006401724
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Eurasian Cold Surges Triggered by the Nonlinear Reflection of Stratospheric Planetary Waves in December 2012 (2017)
  • Author(s): Kodera, K., and H. Mukougawa,
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: 13 Issue: 0 Pages: 140-145
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.2017-026
  • NAID: 130005917393
  • ISSN: 1349-6476
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Influence of atmospheric waves on the maintenance and variability of the southern subtropical jet in winter. (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Journal Title: J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Volume: 122 Issue: 2 Pages: 771-783
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016jd025814
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Delayed North Atlantic Response to Solar Forcing of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (2017)
  • Author(s): Yukimoto, S., K. Kodera, and R. Thieblemont
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: 13 Issue: 0 Pages: 53-58
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.2017-010
  • NAID: 130005549208
  • ISSN: 1349-6476
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Impact of interactive chemistry of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate simulation. (2017)
  • Author(s): Noda, S., K. Kodera, Y. Adachi, M. Deushi, A. Kitoh, R. Mizuta, S. Murakami, K. Yoshida, and S. Yoden
  • Journal Title: J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Volume: 122 Issue: 2 Pages: 878-895
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016jd025508
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Stratospheric tropical warming event and its impact on the polar and tropical troposphere. (2017)
  • Author(s): Kodera K., N. Eguchi, H. Mukougawa, T. Nasuno, and T. Hirooka
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 17 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-11
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-1-2017
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Influence of atmospheric waves on the formation and the maintenance of the subtropical jet during the Northern Hemisphere winter -A new method for analyzing the responses to specific forcings- (2016)
  • Author(s): Y. Kuroda
  • Journal Title: J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Volume: 121 Issue: 9 Pages: 4674-4690
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015jd024592
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Influence of the solar cycle on the polar-night jet oscillation in the southern hemisphere. (2016)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y., and M. Deushi
  • Journal Title: J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Volume: 121 Issue: 19 Pages: 11575-11589
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015jd024204
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown: An ensemble reforecast experiment for the splitting event in January 2009 (2016)
  • Author(s): S. Noguchi, H. Mukougawa, Y. Kuroda, R. Mizuta, S. Yabu, and H. Yoshimura
  • Journal Title: J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Volume: 121 Issue: 7 Pages: 3388-3404
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015jd024581
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Rapid Convective Transport of Tropospheric Air into the Tropical Lower Stratosphere during the 2010 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (2016)
  • Author(s): Eguchi, N, K. Kodera, B.M. Funatsu, H. Takashima, and R. Ueyama
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: 12A Issue: Special_Edition Pages: 13-17
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.12A-003
  • NAID: 130005259606
  • ISSN: 1349-6476
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] How can we understand the global distribution of the solar cycle signal on the Earth's surface? (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera K., R. Thieblemont, S. Yukimoto, and K. Matthes
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 16 Issue: 20 Pages: 12925-12944
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 南半球冬季亜熱帯ジェットの維持機構 (2017)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会春季大会
• [Presentation] 太陽活動による南半球環状モード変調の起源 (2017)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会秋季大会
• [Presentation] 太陽活動の北大西洋域への影響について (2017)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二
  • Organizer: 異常気象研究会
• [Presentation] 2016年8月の日本の猛暑に関連する熱帯の大規模積雲対流活動と成層圏循環の急変の影響 (2017)
  • Author(s): 小寺邦彦, 江口菜穂, Ueyama Rei, 小林ちあき
  • Organizer: 異常気象研究会
• [Presentation] mpact of the tropical lower stratospheric cooling on extreme deep convective activity: Abrupt seasonal transition in boreal summer monsoon (2017)
  • Author(s): Kodera K., R. Ueyama, and N. Eguchi
  • Organizer: 熱帯気象研究会
• [Presentation] Influence of the solar cycle on the polar-night jet oscillation (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Influence of atmospheric waves on the maintenance and variability of te southern subtropical jet in winter (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Role of Stratospheric Cooling on the Tropical Troposphere and the Ocean (2017)
  • Author(s): K. Kodera, N. Eguchi, R. Ueyama, B. M. Funatsu, and C. Claud
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Involvement of recent tropical stratospheric cooling on tropical ocean and tropospheric circulation change (2017)
  • Author(s): K. Kodera, N. Eguchi, R. Ueyama, Y. Kuroda, C. Kobayashi
  • Organizer: Joint SPARC Dynamics & Observations Workshop- QBOi, FISAPS & SATIO-TCS
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Possible role of tropical stratospheric cooling on recent tropical change through modulation of extreme deep convection (2017)
  • Author(s): K. Kodera, N. Eguchi
  • Organizer: Asian Conference on Meteorology 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar-PJO relationship and the NAO -Analysis with an earth system model (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: SOLARIS-HEPPA group meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Nonlinear response of Pacific SSTs to Solar cycle (2017)
  • Author(s): K. Kodera, Y. Kuroda, and R. Thieblemont
  • Organizer: SOLARIS-HEPPA group meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 予測可能性評価 -SNAP国際プロジェクトを例として (2017)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二
  • Organizer: PSTEP名古屋モデリング研究会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋大学、名古屋市
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 最近の成層圏研究と太陽活動 (2017)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二
  • Organizer: 太陽研連シンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 宇宙科学研究所、相模原市
• [Presentation] Solar signal observed in the historical integration of MRI-ESM (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y., and K. Yoshida
  • Organizer: The second international symposium of the PSTEP
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学、京都市
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar cycle influence on the southern hemisphere climate (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: The second international symposium of the PSTEP
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学、京都市
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Role of the ocean in the solar cycle signal in the Earth’s surface (2017)
  • Author(s): Kodera K.
  • Organizer: The second international symposium of the PSTEP
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学、京都市
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Influence of atmospheric waves on the formation and maintenance of the subtropical jet during the northern hemisphere winter (2016)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna, Austria
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar cycle modulation of southern annular mode (2016)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna, Austria
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Influence of atmospheric waves on the formation and maintenance of the subtropical jet during the northern hemisphere winter (2016)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: European Meteorological Society annual meeting/ European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Trieste, Italy
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar cycle modulation of southern annular mode (2016)
  • Author(s): Kuroda, Y.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union Fall meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco, USA
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Absorbing and reflecting sudden stratospheric warming events and their relationship with tropospheric circulation (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera, K., H. Mukougawa, P. Maury, C. Claud, and M. Ueda
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna, Austria
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera K., and R. Thieblemont
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna, Austria
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Role of Stratospheric Cooling on the Tropical Troposphere and the Ocean (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera K., N. Eguchi, R. Ueyama
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union Fall meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco, USA
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Effect of stratospheric ozone on tropical tropospheric and stratospheric circulation after a stratospheric sudden warming event (2016)
  • Author(s): Deushi M., and Y. Kuroda
  • Organizer: Quadrennial Ozone symposium 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Edinburgh, UK
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] 気候変動の辞典 (2017)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二（分担）
  • Total Pages: 460
  • Publisher: 朝倉書店
  • ISBN: 9784254161298
• [Book] 低温と環境の科学辞典(分担執筆：極夜ジェット執筆) (2016)
  • Author(s): 黒田友二
  • Total Pages: 432
  • Publisher: 朝倉書店