Formulation and implementation of cancer forecasting model using data assimilation or deep learning

• Project Area: Conquering cancer through neo-dimensional systems understanding
• Project/Area Number: 18H04895
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: 西浦 博 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 教授 (70432987)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥12,220,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,820,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥6,110,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,410,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥6,110,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,410,000)
• Keywords: 疫学 / がん / 予測 / 数理モデル / 深層学習

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本研究の目的は、感染に引き続く発がん過程のメカニズムを数理モデルによって記述し、疫学的な癌予測と除菌療法・ウイルス除去療法などの評価体系を抜本的に改善するためのモデリング体系を構築することである。予測の実装においては状態空間モデルを利用した。癌登録、人口動態、感染症の観察可能情報を最大限に活用し、データ生成過程に着目して入手可能な情報のみを基にモデル構築や統計学的推定を実施した。主に肺がんを対象として（1）数理モデルの定式化と（2）観察データの収集・整理に注力して研究作業を行った。（1）の定式化では積分方程式を利用した人口動態モデルを利用して喫煙と肺がんを個別に抽出するモデリングを実施した。また、（2）では、文献調査として喫煙と肺がんの因果関係に関するデータ記述と考え方を把握した。肺がん自体の数理モデルは偏微分方程式系として記述した。加えて、胃がんの予測のために、年齢別および時刻別の血清疫学調査の結果に基づき，時刻と年齢の関数でHelicobacter pylori既感染者割合およびそれを構築するために必要となるハザード関数の定量化を実施した。過去から未来を通じて胃十二指腸潰瘍および胃がんのハイリスク者を特定し、疫学的な予測を施す上での基礎を形成した。偏微分方程式系によるHelicobacter pylori感染過程を記述した数理モデルによって、第2次世界大戦前後で感染ハザードが急速な減少を開始したことが尤もらしいことが示唆されるが、それは将来的に胃十二指腸潰瘍や胃がんの患者数が顕著に減少し始める蓋然性が高いことに繋がるものと考えられた。これに引き続き、胃十二指腸潰瘍に関する罹患率および有病率のデータを患者調査から入手し、また、胃がんの登録患者数に関する情報を得るべく、Helicobacter pyloriとの関係を検討した。

Research Progress Status

令和元年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

令和元年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] オックスフォード大学(英国)
• [Journal Article] The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Nishiura Hiroshi、Jung Sung-mok、Linton Natalie M.、Kinoshita Ryo、Yang Yichi、Hayashi Katsuma、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Yuan Baoyin、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 330-330
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020330
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Exploring Influenza Vaccine Uptake and Its Determinants among University Students: A Cross-Sectional Study (2020)
  • Author(s): Kawahara Yukako、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Vaccines Volume: 8 Issue: 1 Pages: 52-52
  • DOI: 10.3390/vaccines8010052
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights (2020)
  • Author(s): Nishiura Hiroshi、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Yang Yichi、Hayashi Katsuma、Miyama Takeshi、Kinoshita Ryo、Linton Natalie M.、Jung Sung-mok、Yuan Baoyin、Suzuki Ayako、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 419-419
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020419
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Initial Cluster of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in Wuhan, China Is Consistent with Substantial Human-to-Human Transmission (2020)
  • Author(s): Nishiura Hiroshi、Linton Natalie M.、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 488-488
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020488
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases (2020)
  • Author(s): Jung Sung-mok、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Hayashi Katsuma、Linton Natalie M.、Yang Yichi、Yuan Baoyin、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Kinoshita Ryo、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 523-523
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020523
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data (2020)
  • Author(s): Linton Natalie M.、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Yang Yichi、Hayashi Katsuma、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Jung Sung-mok、Yuan Baoyin、Kinoshita Ryo、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 538-538
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020538
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) (2020)
  • Author(s): Kobayashi Tetsuro、Jung Sung-mok、Linton Natalie M.、Kinoshita Ryo、Hayashi Katsuma、Miyama Takeshi、Anzai Asami、Yang Yichi、Yuan Baoyin、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Suzuki Ayako、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 580-580
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020580
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) (2020)
  • Author(s): Anzai Asami、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Linton Natalie M.、Kinoshita Ryo、Hayashi Katsuma、Suzuki Ayako、Yang Yichi、Jung Sung-mok、Miyama Takeshi、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Pages: 601-601
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020601
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Epidemiological Identification of A Novel Pathogen in Real Time: Analysis of the Atypical Pneumonia Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019?2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Jung Sung-mok、Kinoshita Ryo、Thompson Robin N.、Linton Natalie M.、Yang Yichi、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 9 Issue: 3 Pages: 637-637
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030637
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Yamaguchi Takayuki、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 8 Issue: 3 Pages: 326-326
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm8030326
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Estimating the force of infection with Helicobacter pylori in Japan. (2019)
  • Author(s): Kayano T, Lee KD, Nishiura H.
  • Journal Title: Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology Volume: 2019 Pages: 1451490-1451490
  • DOI: 10.1155/2019/1451490
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Predicting congenital rubella syndrome in Japan, 2018-2019. (2019)
  • Author(s): Lee H, Kayano T, Nishiura H.
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume: 82 Pages: 1-5
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2019.02.021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: A social contact survey. (2019)
  • Author(s): Munasinghe L, Asai Y, Nishiura H.
  • Journal Title: Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Volume: 16 Issue: 1 Pages: 6-14
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Spatial epidemiological determinants of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Miyazaki, Japan: a GWLR modeling study (2019)
  • Author(s): Yasuo Kazuhiro、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: BMC Infectious Diseases Volume: 19 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-5
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-4111-3
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Investigation of the Proportion of Diagnosed People Living with HIV/AIDS among Foreign Residents in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Shimizu Kazuki、Nishiura Hiroshi、Imamura Akifumi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 8 Issue: 6 Pages: 804-804
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm8060804
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] An investigation of a measles outbreak in Japan and Taiwan, China, March-May 2018 (2018)
  • Author(s): Shimizu Kazuki、Kinoshita Ryo、Yoshii Keita、Akhmetzhanov Andrei、Jung Sungmok、Lee Hyojung、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Western Pacific Surveillance and Response Journal Volume: 9 Issue: 3 Pages: 25-31
  • DOI: 10.5365/wpsar.2018.9.2.005
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Model of lung cancer considering smoking status and prediction of future tend of lung cancer (2019)
  • Author(s): Takayuki Yamaguchi, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Innovative Mathematical Modeling For the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data (IMAID2019)（国際学会）
• [Presentation] Estimates of the force of infection with Helicobacter pylori in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Taishi Kayano, Ki-deok Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Innovative Mathematical Modeling For the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data (IMAID2019)（国際学会）
• [Presentation] Model of lung cancer considering smoking status and prediction of future tend of lung cancer (2019)
  • Author(s): Takayuki Yamaguchi, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Innovative Mathematical Modeling For the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data (IMAID2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimates of the force of infection with Helicobacter pylori in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Taishi Kayano, Ki-deok Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Innovative Mathematical Modeling For the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data (IMAID2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research