1990 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Econometric Studies on Projections of Japanese Agricultural Structure
| Project/Area Number |
01301089
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Agro-economics
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
MORISHIMA Masaru The University of Tokyo, Faculty of Agriculture Professor, 農学部, 教授 (50113634)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KOBAYACHI Hiroaki National Research Institute of Agriculture Economics Researcher, 農業総合研究所, 研究員
SAWADA Manabu The University of Obihiro Faculty Veterinary Lecturer, 畜産学部, 講師 (60142791)
CHINO Jinjiro The University of Utsunomiya Faculty of Agriculture Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (40163729)
FUMIO Osanami The University of Hokkaido Faculty of Agriculture Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (00113697)
FUJITA Natsuki The University of Tokyo Faculty of Agriculture Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (30190044)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1989 – 1990
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| Keywords | Agricultural Structure / Import Liberalization / Short Term Projection / Rice Price Policy / Set Aside / Demand Analysis / Input Output Analysis / Distribution Policy |
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| Research Abstract |
Rice and livestock sectors were selected for the short term projections. The results can be summarized as follows :
Rice
(1) The rice distribution was basically liberalized by the recent policy reforms. As a result, the prices became to considerably reflect the demand and supply relationship.
(2) The role of price policy reduced to set floor prices of "standard quality" (lower graded) rices.
(3) The agricultural structure will be seriously affected by the further liberalization of the rice distribution system.
Beef
(1) While the demand for domestic beef (wagyu) has been strongly expanding, the demand for imported beef has been stagnating. According to an econometric test, this reflects the quality difference.
(2) The import of higher quality beef was forcasted to expand after the beef trade liberalization. This might suppress the domestic beef sector.
(3) The production structure of beef cattle breeding and raising will be also largely affected.
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