1989 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

集中豪雨のメカニズムと予測に関する研究

Research Project

Project/Area Number	01601009
Research Institution	The University of Tokyo
Principal Investigator	浅井冨雄東京大学, 海洋研究所・海洋気象部門, 教授 (80025288)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	松野太郎東京大学, 理学部, 教授 (40037172) 光田寧京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (90027219) 高橋劭九州大学, 理学部, 教授 (20197742) 武田喬男名古屋大学, 水圏科学研究所, 教授 (60022604) 菊地勝弘北海道大学, 理学部, 教授 (80000793)
Keywords	豪雨 / クラウドクラスター(雲集団) / 中規模(メソ)気象擾乱 / メソ対流系 / 中間規模低気圧 / 梅雨 / レーダー / 数値予報
Research Abstract	1.研究目的(1)梅雨前線帯に形成する中間規模低気圧の動的構造と発達機構に関して、1987年7月18ー20日、日本列島沿いに発達しながら通過した中間規模低気圧の定量的解析と数値シュミレーションを行った。この低気圧は活発な積乱雲群による強い降水を伴い、降水域上空には強い熱源が見い出され、1階建の鉛直循環を形成し、対流圏下層に低気圧性渦度、上層に高気圧性渦度が発達した。更に東へ傾斜した浅いトラフ、低気圧中心の南側の850ー700mbに付近に風速20ms^<-1>に達する下層ジェットが認められた。 2.研究目的(2)低気圧域における中規模降雨セル群の分布と消長・移動に関して、1988年7月6ー19日に実施された特別観測資料に基づく解析が行われた。とりわけ7月17日に九州付近で観測されたクラウドクラスターと降水セル群の実態解明に主力が注がれた。17日朝鮮半島南部から九州北西部に上陸し、しばらく九州に停滞した後九州南東海上にぬけ衰弱した〜200kmの水平規模をもつクラウドクラスターについてその立体構造と熱・水収支を解析した。強い降水を伴う個々の対流セルは数10分の寿命で生成・消減をくりかえしながら、世代交替をしつつ、より大きな寿命の長いクラウドクラスターを形成している。一方、新しい対流セルの生成域がその進行方向、或は一般風の鉛直シアーの風下側であったり風上側であったりする。その結果、クラウドクラスターの形成や移動にも差異が生ずる。さらに複数ドップラーレーダー観測により、降水セル群の形成・維持・移動が解析された。 3.特別観測期間中について、微細格子モデルを用い豪雨の予報実験を行なった。中間規模低気圧の形成の移動についてよい再現性が認められた、しかし低気圧域内の雨域の移動・停滞・雨量等の予測にはモデルに導入すべき物理過程や初期値の設定など今後の改良に待たねばならない。

Research Products

(23 results)

All Other

All Publications (23 results)

[Publications] Asai,T.,Y.Kodama and J.-C.Zho: "Long-Term vairations of. cyclone activities in East Asia" Advances in Atmos.Sci.5. 149-158 (1988)
[Publications] Kodama,Y.and T.Asai: "Large-scale cloud distributions and thier seasonal variations as period form GMS-IR observations" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 66. 87-101 (1988)
[Publications] Kimura,R.: "Cell formation in the convective mixed layer" J.Soc.Fluid Mech.3. 395-399 (1988)
[Publications] Chang,C.-Y.and M.Yoshizaki: "Modeling study of the squall line observed at the Okinawa Island:A preliminary report on sensitivity of orographic convective system to mountain height and low-level wind" Proceedings of the TAMEX Workshop. 135-142 (1989)
[Publications] Yoshizaki,M.: "Another approach on a linear theory of conditionally unstable convection:A frocing problem" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan.
[Publications] Yoshizaki,M.: "Theoretical and numerical studies on the formation of the jets by the localized heating" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan.
[Publications] Tada,H.,M.Yoshizaki and T.Asai: "A case study of the meso-α scale disturbances and the associated low-level jets along the Baiu front" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan.
[Publications] Kikuchi,K.,H.Uyeda,N.Takahashi,and K.Iwanami: "Doppler Radar Observations of the Internal Structure of Baiu-Front in Northwest Kyushu,1988(Part-1.Development of Isolated Cloud Cells)" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 68. 12 (1990)
[Publications] Uyeda,H.,N.Takahashi K.Kikuchi,and K.Iwanami: "Doppler Radar Observations of the Internal Structure of Baiu-Front in Northwest Kyushu,1988(Part-2.Features of Gust Front)" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 68. 8 (1990)
[Publications] Takahashi,N.,H.Uyeda,K.Kikuchi,and K.Iwanami: "Doppler Radar Observations of the Internal Structure of Baiu-Front in Northwest Kyusyu,1988(Part-3.Internal Structure of Evolved Cells)" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 68. 10 (1990)
[Publications] Fujiyoshi,Y.,T.Endoh,T.Yamada,K.Tsuboki,Y.Tachibana and G.Wakahama: "Determination of a Z-R relationship for snowfall using a radar and high sensitivity snow gauges" J.Appl.Meteor.(1989)
[Publications] Iwasaki,H.and T.Takeda: "Behavior of cumulonimbus-clouster in a snow-moving meso-scale cloud cluster over the ocean" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 67. 575-586 (1989)
[Publications] Takahashi,T.: "Long-lasting trade-wind rain showers in a three-dimensional model" Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 45. 3333-3353 (1988)
[Publications] Takahashi,T.: "Curious movement of rainbands-July 17 Baiu rainband case" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 68. (1990)
[Publications] Pingping,X.and Y.Mituta: "Nephanalysis of the GMS Imagery Data" Bulletin of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University. Vol.40 Part 1. (1990)
[Publications] 謝平平,光田寧: "GMS赤外・可視資料による降雨の推定について" 京都大学防災研究所年報. 第31号Bー1. 201-217 (1988)
[Publications] 謝平平,光田寧: "GMS赤外データを用いた雲の解析について" 京都大学防災研究所年報. 第32号Bー1. 347-357 (1989)
[Publications] Ninomiya,K.,T.Akiyama and M.Ikawa: "Evdution and fine structure of a long-lived meso-α-scale convective system in Bair frontal zone.Part 1:Evdution and meso-β-scale characteristics" Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan. 66. 331-350 (1988)
[Publications] Ninomiya,K.,T.Akiyama and M.Ikawa: "Evdution and fine structure of a long-lived meso- -scale convective system in Baiu frontal zone.Part 2:Meso-γ-scale characteristics of precipitation" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 66. 351-371 (1988)
[Publications] Ninomiya,K.: "Cloud distribution over the East Asia during Baiu period of 1979" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 66. 639-658 (1989)
[Publications] 吉住禎夫: "梅雨前線帯の中規模降水域" 東北技術だより、仙台管区気象台. 6. 354-366 (1989)
[Publications] 浅井冨雄: "気候変動" 東京堂出版, 202pp (1988)
[Publications] Ninomiya,K.and T.Murakami: "“The early summer rainy season(Baiu)over Japan"in Monsoon meteorology" Oxford University Press., 544pp (1987)

1989 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

集中豪雨のメカニズムと予測に関する研究

Principal Investigator

浅井 冨雄 東京大学, 海洋研究所・海洋気象部門, 教授 (80025288)

Research Products

[Publications] Asai,T.,Y.Kodama and J.-C.Zho: "Long-Term vairations of. cyclone activities in East Asia" Advances in Atmos.Sci.5. 149-158 (1988)

[Publications] Kodama,Y.and T.Asai: "Large-scale cloud distributions and thier seasonal variations as period form GMS-IR observations" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 66. 87-101 (1988)

[Publications] Kimura,R.: "Cell formation in the convective mixed layer" J.Soc.Fluid Mech.3. 395-399 (1988)

[Publications] Chang,C.-Y.and M.Yoshizaki: "Modeling study of the squall line observed at the Okinawa Island:A preliminary report on sensitivity of orographic convective system to mountain height and low-level wind" Proceedings of the TAMEX Workshop. 135-142 (1989)

[Publications] Yoshizaki,M.: "Another approach on a linear theory of conditionally unstable convection:A frocing problem" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan.

[Publications] Yoshizaki,M.: "Theoretical and numerical studies on the formation of the jets by the localized heating" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan.

[Publications] Tada,H.,M.Yoshizaki and T.Asai: "A case study of the meso-α scale disturbances and the associated low-level jets along the Baiu front" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan.

[Publications] Kikuchi,K.,H.Uyeda,N.Takahashi,and K.Iwanami: "Doppler Radar Observations of the Internal Structure of Baiu-Front in Northwest Kyushu,1988(Part-1.Development of Isolated Cloud Cells)" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 68. 12 (1990)

[Publications] Uyeda,H.,N.Takahashi K.Kikuchi,and K.Iwanami: "Doppler Radar Observations of the Internal Structure of Baiu-Front in Northwest Kyushu,1988(Part-2.Features of Gust Front)" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 68. 8 (1990)

[Publications] Takahashi,N.,H.Uyeda,K.Kikuchi,and K.Iwanami: "Doppler Radar Observations of the Internal Structure of Baiu-Front in Northwest Kyusyu,1988(Part-3.Internal Structure of Evolved Cells)" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 68. 10 (1990)

[Publications] Fujiyoshi,Y.,T.Endoh,T.Yamada,K.Tsuboki,Y.Tachibana and G.Wakahama: "Determination of a Z-R relationship for snowfall using a radar and high sensitivity snow gauges" J.Appl.Meteor.(1989)

[Publications] Iwasaki,H.and T.Takeda: "Behavior of cumulonimbus-clouster in a snow-moving meso-scale cloud cluster over the ocean" J.Meteor,Soc.Japan. 67. 575-586 (1989)

[Publications] Takahashi,T.: "Long-lasting trade-wind rain showers in a three-dimensional model" Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 45. 3333-3353 (1988)

[Publications] Takahashi,T.: "Curious movement of rainbands-July 17 Baiu rainband case" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 68. (1990)

[Publications] Pingping,X.and Y.Mituta: "Nephanalysis of the GMS Imagery Data" Bulletin of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University. Vol.40 Part 1. (1990)

[Publications] 謝平平,光田寧: "GMS赤外・可視資料による降雨の推定について" 京都大学防災研究所年報. 第31号Bー1. 201-217 (1988)

[Publications] 謝平平,光田寧: "GMS赤外データを用いた雲の解析について" 京都大学防災研究所年報. 第32号Bー1. 347-357 (1989)

[Publications] Ninomiya,K.,T.Akiyama and M.Ikawa: "Evdution and fine structure of a long-lived meso-α-scale convective system in Bair frontal zone.Part 1:Evdution and meso-β-scale characteristics" Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan. 66. 331-350 (1988)

[Publications] Ninomiya,K.,T.Akiyama and M.Ikawa: "Evdution and fine structure of a long-lived meso- -scale convective system in Baiu frontal zone.Part 2:Meso-γ-scale characteristics of precipitation" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 66. 351-371 (1988)

[Publications] Ninomiya,K.: "Cloud distribution over the East Asia during Baiu period of 1979" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 66. 639-658 (1989)

[Publications] 吉住禎夫: "梅雨前線帯の中規模降水域" 東北技術だより、仙台管区気象台. 6. 354-366 (1989)

[Publications] 浅井冨雄: "気候変動" 東京堂出版, 202pp (1988)

[Publications] Ninomiya,K.and T.Murakami: "“The early summer rainy season(Baiu)over Japan"in Monsoon meteorology" Oxford University Press., 544pp (1987)

浅井冨雄東京大学, 海洋研究所・海洋気象部門, 教授 (80025288)