1992 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Reflux of black-ink balance and the takeoff-accelerating effect of international gigantic project - dynamic public investment criteria-oriented-investigation of an Asian Expressway Network plan -
| Project/Area Number |
03405002
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
広領域
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| Research Institution | The University of Tsukuba |
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Principal Investigator |
KOHNO Hirotada Univ.of Tsukuba, Inst.of Socio-Economic Planning Prof., 社会工学系, 教授 (40017984)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
HIGANO Yoshiro Toyohasi Univ.of Technology Faculty of Engineering Assoc.Prof., 工学部・第7学系, 助教授 (90189762)
HIBATA Yasuo Univ.of Tsukuba, Inst.of Socio-Economic Planning Prof., 社会工学系, 助教授 (00011148)
KUDO Kazuhisa Univ.of Tsukuba, Inst.of Social Sciences Prof., 社会科学系, 教授 (00083329)
TAKAYANAGI Satoru Univ.of Tsukuba, Inst.of Socio-Economic Planning Prof., 社会工学系, 教授 (70055094)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1991 – 1992
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| Keywords | Dynamic Public Investment Criteria / Dynamic Marginal Opportunity Cost Principle / Global Gigantic Project / Optimal Economic Growth Model / Dynamic Multi-Regions Multi-Industries Multi-Modal Transports (Comprehensive Transport System) Optimal Programming Model / Imputed Price / Direct.Indirect Economic Effects (Social Benefits) / Takeoff-Accelerating Effects |
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| Research Abstract |
We have intended to construct a dynamic interregional input-output programming model in order to measure social economic effects of the Asian Expressway Network on China and derive its investment criterion. That is, the accelerating-system for yielding agglomeration-effects is built into the model, by which the dynamic process of 'takeoff' of China has been derived.
It is not too much to say that we can recognize the Asian Expressway Network will produce considerably great impacts to the growth path of Chinese economy; which we have demonstrated by the Dynamic With and Without Test based on the simulation results.
It follows that: in the earlier stage of planning period, the natural growth trajectory or other trajectory which are derived as the result that the avalable exogenous investment fund has been invested other objects such as ordinary roads, port facilities, etc. than an expressway network have generated the higher growth rate than that of the economy in which the exogenous investment found had been concentrated to the Expressway Network; however, in the latter period, the economic growth 'with' the expressway network has overwhelmingly dominated over that 'without' the expressway.
That is to say, it has been proved that the expressway network-oriented development program realizes the greatest 'takeoff-accelerating effects,' compared to the other alternative economic growth paths. Namely, the all-embracing cost of expressway service among various transport services as a derived demand is the cheapest; thata is, it is confirmed that the most efficient set of activities of the comprehensive opportunity cost (proxy index of social benefits) is chosen among many alternative sets. In this way, we have attained our predetermined targets.
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[Publications] H.Kohno: "Introduction to Regional Interindustry (Input-Output) Analysis (I), (II), (III), (IV), (V)" Innovation & I-0 Technique. Vol.2,No.1,2,4,Vol.3,No.1,Vol.4,No.2. 55-74,66-82 (199119921993)
Description
「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
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