1992 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Estimation and Management of Drought Situation by Using Pattern Classification and furry Infererc
| Project/Area Number |
03832023
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
社会システム工学
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| Research Institution | Gifu University |
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Principal Investigator |
KOGIRI Toshiharu Gifu University Engineering Professor, 工学部, 教授 (00026353)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TAKARA Kaoru Gifu University Engineering Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (80144327)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1991 – 1992
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| Keywords | Pattern Classification / Fuzzy Inference / Climate Change / Multi-layer and Mesh model / Drought control |
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| Research Abstract |
We have been suffering from heavy drought for these years, which was caused by difference between patterns of discharge hydrograph and water demand. Basically hydrographs are gained through the run-off analysis applied to procipitation, and geological and geographical conditions. Though precipitations are occurred with the complex components, hyetographs and hydrographs consist of typically few patterns according to their characteristics. Therefore in this project, We have investigated the estimation methods of drought severity and real-time operation for drought control. To sum up, the following results were gained:
i)ISODATA method classified historical hydrographs into the reasonable patterns with the proposed estimation function from the view point of low flow.
ii)long-term run-off model with snow-melt was formulated by using mesh-typed multi-layer process. Discharge was simulated through fuzzy generation procedures under the conditions of assumed scenarios. The snow cover area was identified with discrimination function of satellite data of NOAA.
iii)Probability of drought event for classified hydrograph was estimated through the concept of success percent. Moreover, the drought characteristics was formulated as reliability and resiliency.
iv)In the real-time operation of reservoir for drought, the operational procedure was proposed by comparing the expert system and following the experience of operator.
v)Target storage volume at each control time stage was calculated for each classified hydrograph under the condition of special operation rule.
vi)Fuzzy inference theory gave the actual target storage volume in other words, the release at next control time stage with similarities of present drought against classified hydrographs.
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