1994 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Simulation analysis of timber trade structure among japan, the U.S.and Canada influenced by conservation problems.
| Project/Area Number |
04041083
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | Field Research |
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| Research Institution | MIYAZAKI UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi Professor, Miyazaki University, 農学部, 教授 (30174832)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
PEREZーGARCIA ジョン エム. ワシントン大学CINTRAFOR, 助教授
BROOKS David j. PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 経済研究室長
FLORA Donald f. PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service, エコノミスト
HAYNES Richard w. PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 経営部長
SHIBA Masami Associate Professor, Mie University, 生物資源学部, 助教授 (20144339)
NAGATA Shin Associate Professor, University of Tokyo, 農学部, 助教授 (20164436)
KATO Takashi Forestry and Forest Product Research Institute, 経済分析研究室, 室長
YOSHIMOTO Atsushi Associate Professor, Miayzaki University, 農学部, 助教授 (10264350)
FUKUDA Susumu Associate Professor, Miayzaki University, 農学部, 助教授 (40183925)
KAI Shigetaka Associate Professor, Miayzaki University, 農学部, 助教授 (30041057)
PEREZ-GARCIA John m. Assistant Professor, University of Washington
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| Project Period (FY) |
1992 – 1994
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| Keywords | Timber trade / forest economics / econometrics / linear programming / quadratic programming / spatial equilibrium model / 空間均衡モデル |
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| Research Abstract |
Japanese timber markets are highly dependent on foreign suppliers. The volume of foreign logs and lumber exported to Japan may decline drastically in the near term, as a result of worldwide environmental preservation efforts. Although foreign suppliers dominate the Japanese market, the area and volume of mature, domestic forests increased during the last decade as a result of the large amount of replanting done since the 1960s. Because the Japanese timber market plays an important role in world timber markets, as the largest timber importer, prospective changes in Japanese domestic timber harvest level will affect world markets and timber trade. This project presents a forest sector model for Japan. The model consists of three parts : the first part is a model of timber trade among Japan, the US and Canada using annual data from 1973 to 1991. The second part of this model is a model of regional timber markets, using pooled data from regional timber markets in Japan. The last part is spatial and temporal lumber allocation model for Japanese markets ; this component provides a regional allocation, and establishes a spatial equilibrium in markets. Using several scenarios for North American timber harvest level, our experimental analysis shows that Tohoku region and Chugoku region compete each other to ship their lumber to Kanto lumber market. As for Kyushu region, transportation costs are so high that excess supply remains. This is inconsistent with our observations, which shows large shipping of lumber from Kyushu region to Kanto region. This implies that although transportation costs are an important part of the total costs for lumber suppliers, other costs, such as harvesting costs and wage, may play an important role in differentiating their products from others at the market. Further research has to be conducted to apply other costs into the proposed model.
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[Publications] YUKUTAKE,K., FUKUDA,S., KAI,S., KADO,R., KATO,T.& NAGATA,S.: "Effect of nature conservation on timber production/export in Washington and Oregon states and timber market in Japan" Transactions of the Japanese Forestry Society. 104. 81-82 (1993)
Description
「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
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