1995 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
A RESEARCH OF POPULATION PROJECTION IN THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PLANNING
| Project/Area Number |
06630021
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Research Field |
Economic statistics
|
|---|
| Research Institution | OITA UNIVERSITY |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
NISHIMURA Yoshihiro Oita University, Faculty of Economics Associate Professor, 経済学部, 助教授 (50172705)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
1994 – 1995
|
| Keywords | comprehensive development planning / population projection |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
In the 1994 fiscal year, I translated the United Nations'manual for the comprehensive development planning ^<1)> into Japanese. Then, in the 1995 fiscal year, I ascertained the following as a result of the examination of the manual.
The manual is oriented toward generalization of the methodology based on the present conditions in the developing countries. It includes materials providing the conceptual basis for integrating demographic variables in the planning. It is presented as a conceptual framework for the planning. The framework draws ideas from the critical re-examinations of ecnomic growth-oriented planning. In addition, it consists of the methodological chapters describing various projection techniques. The economic, social and demographic projections are not made by the comprehensive planning models but partial techniques.
The concerned argument on the conceptual framework is abstract, because the United Nations doesn't present the planning framework in the manual that seems to
… More
conform with the general model of the comprehensive development planning. If the United Nations presented it, the assertion of the United Nations, that is to say, the planning assuming that a primary objective of social and economic development is the attainment of higher standards of living, could become more clear.
The generalization of population projection technique is close to the complete stage, but it doesn't necessarily correspond to the actual projection possibility. And the utility of the United Nations' manual should be of great, if the United Nations presented illustrative examples from the viewpoint of the preliminary projection and the plan projection, from the retrospective estimations of demographic factors to their future assumptions. Furthermore, I referred the points which should be taken into consideration in the social and economic planning of our country.
1) United Nations, Projection Methods for Integrating Population Variables into Development Planning, Volume I : Methods for Comprehensive planning, Module 1 (1989), Module 2 (1990), Module 3 (1993). Less
|
