1995 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Forecasting Model of Marine Transport Economies Based on Artificial Life Concept
| Project/Area Number |
06651081
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
船舶工学
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| Research Institution | University of Osaka prefecture |
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Principal Investigator |
KISHI Mitsuo College of Eng., University of Osaka prefecture Assistant Prof, 工学部, 助教授 (00145814)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YAMADA Tomoki College of Eng., University of Osaka prefecture Assistant, 工学部, 助手 (90240027)
HOSODA Ryusuke College of Eng., University of Osaka prefecture Professor, 工学部, 教授 (30081392)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1994 – 1995
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| Keywords | Artificial life / Emergent behavior / Economic model / Transport networks / Demand forecasting / Marine transport / East Asia / North Korea revolution |
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| Research Abstract |
The forecasting should begin preparing a variety of pictures, herein called "rich pictures, " for the future environment. The next step is analyzing the system behavior of interest for individual rich picture. Basically, qualitative analysis is more preferable than quantitative analysis in long-term forecasts. The extrapolative forecasting, which depends on actual record of the past, does not cope with drastic changes in environmental conditions. In order to study the "future-as-it-can-be, " we desire a system dynamics model which can adapt to those rich pictures.
Artificial Life (AL) is the study of man-made systems that exhibit behavior characteristics of natural living systems. The AL focuses on the system behavior which emerges out of the interactions among micro/local objects. Thus, the AL is concerned with system dynamics. The system dynamics model based on the AL concept can flexibly adapt itself to the given environment, since that model is merely a large aggregation of simple programs which specify how the local objects react in the environment.
We propose a forecasting model based on the AL concept for transport network growth. This model is an artificial world where the local objects, i.e.people, resources developers, energy factories, products factories, transporters, traders, banks, and governments, act for individual purpose. The AL-based model presents us a variety of scenarios in transport planning. Application example of East-Asia transport network growth is provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.
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