1998 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Development of Loss Estimation Method and Emergency Management with Geographic Information Systems
| Project/Area Number |
08508001
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 展開研究 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | KYOTO UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
KAWATA Yoshiaki Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (10027295)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TANAKA Satoshi Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Research Associate, 防災研究所, 助手 (90273523)
HAYASHI Haruo Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (20164949)
KAMEDA Hiroyuki Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (80025949)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1996 – 1998
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| Keywords | Disaster Information Systems / Emergency management / Loss estimation / Catastrophic earthquake / Catastrophic disaster / Urban disaster / Disaster information / GIS |
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| Research Abstract |
We estimated the total loss of human lives and the injured due to large-scale earthquake disasters at every hour due to six reasons such as collapse of houses and railway accidents. It was found that every component has own maximum peak of the number of loss of human lives and the injured. The total human damage is recorded at around 8 a.m. and others at noon and in the evening. The occurrence time of the Hyogoken-nambu earthquake of 5 : 46 a.m. is not lucky time from the view point of human casualty. In the indirect loss due to disaster, there are two kinds of losses such as economic loss and human lives one. The Latter is loss of social value in human lives. The economic loss due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster was estimated about two trillion yen from the analysis of decrease of electric power supply in the damaged area. From this point, the reconstruction of economics was over. The relationship between GRP and average human life span was applicable to estimate the social value loss of human lives. In the analysis, traffic accident data were used to account the insurance cost of the dead and the injured. Due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, loss of social value of human lives was about two trillion yen. Human casualty usually continue for a long time. From data analysis of questionnaire on social problems, the effect of disaster continues about 18 years. Therefore, the integration of the effect shows that the loss of human lives is correspond to about ten trillion yen. It was concluded that reducing human damage leads to decrease of total loss. Moreover, the next generation GIS was also developed. It is applicable to estimation of loss of human lives due to earthquake, but the accuracy is not so good due to rough prediction of seismic ground motion.
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