1998 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Study into the Fluctuations of Foreign Exchanges under the Managed Currency System, especially, the Flexible Exchange Rate System
| Project/Area Number |
08630010
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
経済理論
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| Research Institution | Kogakuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
YOSHIDA Kenichi Kogakuin University, Department of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (10230731)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1996 – 1998
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| Keywords | purchasing power parity (theory) / nominal fluctuations of foreign exchanges / exchange market / inflation / flexible (exchange) rate system / fixed (exchange) rate system / international balance of payment / real fluctuations of foreign exchanges |
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| Research Abstract |
Purposes of this study are, first, to analyse the factors of long-term fluctuations of foreign exchange rates under the managed currency system established in the 1930s and of middle-term fluctuations of those under the flexible exchange rate system established in the 1970s, second, to explain the causes of the fluctuations of exchanges between Japan and America in the 1980s bounded by the PLAZA ACCORD. Analyzes are separated into three parts, namely 1960s, 70s and 80s.
On the first era. Up to this time, collapse of the Bretton Woods System has been explained as the crisis of dollar, the international currency, but it is merely an opportunity, not the fundamental cause. This study made it clear that the economic entity behind the phenomenon of the dollar crisis was the movement of the Purchasing Power Parity, and that its inflative deviation from both the fixed exchange rate and IMF parity destroyed the Bretton Woods System itself after all.
On the second era. Since the advent of the flexible exchange rate system in 1973, there are many adherents who expect its automatic mechanism of balance of payments. We showed the objective conditions, and proved its error points thoretically. Further, we showed the factor why the monetary authority intervened in the foreign exchange market and the evils of intervention.
On the third era. America was given both many ill effects and significant lessons by the high rates of dollar under the first Reagan administration in the first half of 1980s, and the low rates of dollar under the second Reagan administration in the latter half of 1980s. We clarified the process and reasons of the transformation of the economic strategy with Japan, from that of decreasing the products of secondary industry (represented by cars) under the Republican administration by Mr. Reagan and Mr. Bush into that of incresing the products of primary industry (represented by agricultural produce) under the Democratic administration by Mr. Clinton.
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