1999 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Development of Comprehensive Assessment Methodology for Impact of Global Change on the Coastal System
| Project/Area Number |
09490002
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
広領域
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| Research Institution | IBARAKI UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
MIMURA Nobuo Ibaraki Univ., Center for Water Env.Studies, Prof., 広域水圏環境科学教育研究センター, 教授 (60133089)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
ISOBE Masahiko Univ.of Tokyo, Institute of Env.Studies, Prof., 大学院・新領域創成科学研究科, 教授 (20114374)
YONEKURA Nobuyuki Univ.of Tokyo, Faculty of Science, Prof., 大学院・理学系研究科, 教授 (30011563)
UMITSU Masatomo Nagoya Univ., Faculty of Literature, Prof., 文学部, 教授 (50127883)
HIRAI Yukihiro Ehime Univ., Faculty of Education, Assoc.Prof., 教育学部, 助教授 (30181134)
YANAGI Tstsuo Kyushu Univ., Res.Inst.of Applied Mech., Prof., 応用力学研究所, 教授 (70036490)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1997 – 1999
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| Keywords | Global change / Sea level rise / Climate change / Coast / Coastal zone / Impact assessment / GIS |
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| Research Abstract |
This study reveals the following results based on the four sub-groups.
(1) Scenarios for future climatic conditions, such as mean surface temperature and trend of typhoons in the Asia and Pacific region, were obtained by the enhanced CCM and ocean model.
(2) Satellite remote sensing data and socioeconomic data were gathered to analyze thepresent environmental conditions and to classify the coastlines. An algorism was developed to identify the coral reefs using satellite images. Based on these data and a predictive model for mangrove change, impacts of sea level rise on mangroves, coral reefs, and coastal lagoons were assessed.
(3) Economic effects of sea level rise was estimated for Thailand using a general equilibrium economic model. The impact in the inundated and flooded areas propagates to other areas to reduce the economic welfare. The areas affected by inundation and flooding were also estimated by GIS and digital dataset of the socioeconomic conditions in Thailand.
(4) Tidal range and storm surge level were estimated for the coastlines in the whole Asia and Pacific region. These water levels were superposed to the topography, and the distributions of population, infrastructures and wetlands to identify the areas affected by sea level rise and storm surge.
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